Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Interest rates  |  October 29, 2012 15:38:00

Koruna weakens at home the week of 25.00 CZK / EUR


Central European currencies today under the leadership of the forint weakened. The Hungarian currency during the first working day of the week lost almost one percent. Conversely relatively successful currency region, the Polish zloty against the euro, which closed down almost one third percent. Czech crown is placed between, though weakened by nearly two thirds percent. While the first morning quotations in the interbank market have found just below 24.95 CZK / EUR in the afternoon already been attacked by the level of 25.05 CZK / EUR.

The slowdown in the Central European currencies was mainly negative sentiment in global markets, which is manifested in a stronger dollar against the euro, falling equity markets and declining yields IRS.Certainly do not help the Hungarian forint reports that negotiations between representatives of the Hungarian and the IMF do not feel smooth and secure financial assistance to Hungary is definitely not a done deal. Against the Czech currency is approaching the Bank Board of the Czech National Bank. This is to discuss monetary policy on the basis of updated macroeconomic forecasts will meet on Thursday.

We believe that the new macroeconomic forecast from the workshop CNB indicates the need for further monetary easing. Assuming cut its key interest rate by 15 bps to 0.10% accompanied by a verbal interventions against domestic currency. The market is still cutting interest rates fully counted. If expectations continue to grow, the crown should rather weaken. From a technical point of view is more pronounced weakness be overcome technical resistance area around 25.10 CZK / EUR (100 day and 200 day moving average)

Negative mood in the global market resulted in drop in Czech yields. IRS curve at the long end fell by about 5 bp, shorter end slightly behind. The move was broadly in line with euro IRS yield curve.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

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Koruna na úvod týdne oslabuje nad 25,00 CZK/EUR

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