Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  October 30, 2012 11:51:16

Eurozone - Confidence in the economy is in October, the lowest in the last three years and just above market expectations


Confidence index compiled EK euro area economy in October recorded the eighth decline in a row to 84.5 points compared to September's 85.2 points, the lowest since August 2009. The market in this respect, estimated to decline 84.4 points.

The euro zone economy probably in 3Q drops again after a contraction of 0.2% in 2Q. If this happens it will be the first confirmed recession (decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters) since 2009.

The eurozone is facing a general decline in trust primarily due to developments in its debt crisis. After it seemed that it would be able to handle growing market again convinced that the crisis will deepen more. The main argument in this change is just weakening the euro area economy and especially its peripheral countries. Slowing economic growth makes it difficult for individual governments to meet their savings goals.Currently it is estimated that at least 5 of the euro area can not meet their resolutions.

Partial index of confidence in the manufacturing sector across the EU fell to -18 points from -15.9 in September. Index of confidence in the euro area fell to -11 from -10.2 points in September. Orders index fell to -34.9 points compared to -30.5 in September. Index of capacity utilization fell to 76.8% from 77.9% in September.

Confidence index in services decreased from -11.9 in September to -12.1 points. Index of consumer sentiment rose to -25.7 points compared to September's -25.9 points.
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