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World markets  |  October 31, 2012 06:22:46

It's time to sell the shares at 60% expect the U.S. recession

Barry Ritholtz popular investor selling its shares. In the past, yet his predictions often estimated further market development. Which sectors will suffer the most, according to him the stock market correction, and that contrary positions in the portfolio to keep? A much recommended Ritholtz hold cash?

U.S. stocks

"Currently I got rid of the positions in major firms and the share of cash in the portfolio to 25%," Ritholtz writes on his website. Sold out half of the positions in the energy sector and some exposure to emerging markets. The biggest change was the reduction in the value of assets in companies from the S & P 500, on the right half. For example, a third of the shares sold by Apple.

Shares of view of technical analysis: Just above the abyss

Defensive game

Long continue to believe shares of companies in the sectors of health care and consumer goods. Defensive bond remains in the area where the retained exposure in U.S. Treasury bonds Bondi in town, which still considered safe harbors.

"Changes in the portfolio are not connected with the approaching fiscal cliff. I agree with Michael Belkin , who recommends that people forget the fiscal cliff cliff and pay attention gain (earnings cliff - ed. red.), "says Ritholtz.

60% probability of recession within a year and a half

Ritholtz gives new recession in the U.S. 60% probability in the next 18 months. According to current estimates, the U.S. economy is growing at a rate of 2%, the turn of the year, but it may mean for GDP growth to několikaprocentní "notch". The decline in the profitability of firms may result in a 20 - to 30% drop in the stock market.

Read also:

10 investment lessons from the worst collapse in the market, remember that

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