World markets  |  November 01, 2012 16:43:14

Good mood of the markets in October faded / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: a week from 29 10th 2,012


While the financial markets in September brought a very good mood, when the U.S. Fed officially launched the third round of quantitative easing in October, the intoxication of cheap money began to gradually subside. Only in the U.S. is almost completely repudiate share gains in September, making the U.S. S & P500 index again struggling to maintain important limits on 1400 points. Although shares last month but just not solve, is still true that, compared with previous months yet to experience an unusually quiet period.

Grateful to be American traders not only the Fed, but also the ECB.The only thanks to the September announcement that it will, if necessary, with unlimited bond purchases, stabilize the situation in Europe and for a long time probably silenced all harbingers of an early end of the common currency.

While still in the middle of the year, the difference between the yields reached from Spanish and German ten-year bonds of 640 basis points, now moves to 415 points and it can be expected that when Spain calls for help and the ECB starts buying bonds, it will do this closely watched spread straighten even more. This is crucial not only to calm fears of further deepening debt crisis, but also for the effective transmission of monetary policy, which has nearly the same effects in all euro area countries.

Will the ECB to further reduce long-term rates in troubled eurozone countries, Europe can wait several months of very stable. This combined with a gradual stabilization in the U.S. and China, which also begin to benefit from the easing of monetary policy, eliminating a number of risks in the financial markets this year, hampered and significantly reduces the scope for significant oversold on equities and other risky assets.

Jaroslav Brychta, X-Trade Brokers

Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in the next month and a half, a week from 29 10th 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
26th 10th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
964.16
970.00
980
^ 0.61
950-985
3
2
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 107,21
13 171,20
13226
^ 0.49
12950 - 13400
3
2
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 987,95
2 993,20
2,960
^ 0.18
2 900 - 3 150
2
3
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 806,90
5 772,00
5,750
ˇ -0.60
5 670 - 5 900
2
3
DAX (Germany)
7 231,85
7 192,80
7,138
ˇ -0.54
7 000 - 7400
2
3
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 933,06
8 867,00
8,950
ˇ -0.74
8650 - 9035
3
2

Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
26th 10th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
964.16
974.00
990
^ 1.02
940 - 1 000
3
2
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 107,21
13 317,60
13488
^ 1.61
12 800 - 13 700
3
2
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 987,95
3 015,80
3,066
^ 0.93
2 800 - 3200
3
2
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 806,90
5 853,60
5,968
^ 0.80
5650 - 6 000
3
2
DAX (Germany)
7 231,85
7 274,40
7,492
^ 0.59
6880 - 7550
3
2
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
8 933,06
8 652,00
8,980
ˇ -3.15
7150 - 9200
3
2

Rating this week performed:

  • Menčík Thomas, George Šimara - CYRRUS
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file.Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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