Cyrrus (Cyrrus)
Czech markets  |  November 02, 2012 16:22:39

Telefónica CR: Prediction of financial results for 3Q2012

Also in the 3rd quarter Telefónica CR faced strong competition due to the high saturation of the phone market. In our opinion, lessen the annual rate of decline in sales when, after a decline of 2.4% in the second quarter, we expect a decline in the previous quarter by 3.2% (consensus -3.5%). Reduction in sales we expect in both hard segment (-6.4% y / y) and in the mobile segment (-5.5% y / y). Conversely still strong revenue growth (+32,3% y / y) predicted the Slovak Republic.

At the operational level, according to our model achieves the Company adjusted OIBDA margin of 41.0%. This is 0.6 percentage points more than in the previous quarter, but it is a significant decrease year on year (Q3 2011 adjusted margin of 45.5%). Even so, we expect year-round easy to meet the goal of slowing the pace of annual decline in adjusted OIBDA margins. Net income according to our calculations, reaches 1.73 billion CZK (consensus 1.78 billion CZK).

In our opinion, Telefónica CR stands against a number of important milestones. Most of them should be mentioned at the time of management commentary results for 3Q. The current entry is the first particular virtual operator BLESKmobil. We expect management commentary, as this will affect the company's virtual and if so, what is the financial benefit to Telefonica CR from this cooperation.However, do not expect the virtual operators created a real threat to the existing players in the market.

In the last quarter, significantly shifted auction vacant frequencies. To the auction itself known (and approved CTO) only four companies, all of which are operators and three Czech financial group PPF. We would like to hear from the management of the current view to the auction, the estimated amount of the investment or how much is the real threat of entry of a full-fledged fourth operator. If successful, PPF at auction for Telefonica is a real threat that a new operator will attack the market with lower prices and thus creating (as opposed to virtual) full competition with the pressure on revenues, margins and profits of existing operators.

Given the current situation in the European telecommunications market, where such Telekomunikacja Polska reduced dividend due to deterioration in a major competition, and Deutsche Telekom, which has not been speculated to reduce the dividend, we would expect management to deliver its opinion and refute concerns that Telefónica CR facing similar threats.

Expression also expect regarding dividend for 2012 (our prediction is 40 CZK) and the comments to repurchase its own shares.

The whole prediction results for download here

TO2 publish its results for 3Q12 on Tuesday 6 November.

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Telefónica CR: Predikce výsledků hospodaření za 3Q2012

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