Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Commodities  |  November 05, 2012 09:25:11

Oil price outlook to the end of the year - subdued demand

We expect the growth in global oil demand will be subdued until the end of the year. The increase in demand in emerging markets will almost offset by a decline in demand in OECD countries. This would be the price of Brent crude oil, to remain until the end of 2012 trapped in Gaza, especially after the last dose of liquidity provided by central banks, the market has failed unlike before start the ascent.

After the summer growth, oil prices stabilized. Upside powered by interruptions from various locations and sanctions imposed on Iran, which keeps production at lowest level in several years. Recorded an increase in energy prices and the weak dollar, which has weakened significantly in September, when he turned away from speculators.

Brent in 2012 traded on average $ 112 per barrel. We expect that the average for the whole year will be close to 110 dollars by the end of the year, so the price will be between 105 and $ 110 per barrel. The difference between WTI and Brent crude oil remains high, because speculative liquidation of long positions falls most on WTI crude oil, while any premium for geopolitical risk is reflected in the price of Brent crude oil due to the fact that this type of oil is used as a global indicator for poměřovací oil from fields in the sea.

Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank commodity strategist

Downside risks

Risks growth

Prospects for China's economy

       The deepening crisis in the euro area

       Strengthening Dollar

85pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-list: l1 level1 LFO1 "class = text align = left>        The slump in the U.S. fiscal gap

       Poor prospects for global macroeconomics

       Geopolitical event

       Bad weather in the southern hemisphere

       Colder winter in the northern hemisphere than forecasts predict

05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: page; mso-element-left: 170.55pt; mso-element-top: 29.85pt; mso- height-rule: exactly; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2 "class = text align = left>        Continued aggressive easing of monetary policy

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