Cyrrus (Cyrrus)
Czech markets  |  November 07, 2012 09:05:02

New World Resources: prediction results for 3Q2012

As is tradition, NWR results have been published before the development of the basic parameters of the extraction and sale of coal and coke, which reduces the dispersion of analysts expectations, at least on the level of sales. Our expectations of operating income is slightly below the market consensus, which probably reflects our defensive projection of other income (transport, sale of by-products, etc.).

The operating cost is already estimated variance of the market traditionally higher, our projection is slightly above consensus at the EBIT level and slightly below the level of EBITDA. Flexibility of operating costs is at NWR low, but we think that the company was able to reduce annual OPEX by more than 5%, 1% qoq due to lower expected costs of materials, energy and services (vs. lower production. 2Q2012). Operating profit should increase quite significantly help stocks of coal and coke during 3Q, we expect a positive effect of EUR 25 million.

Net finance costs that are harder to predict (we count with -16 million euros) should send the profit before tax in the red - we expect a loss of over 5 million, and with almost zero tax expected to be similar and profit after taxation.

Reported prices of coking coal and coke for 4Q2012, as well as the target year of mining, sales, and coal and coke indicate that NWR recognized in 4Q2012 relatively high loss, the red should be a number on the operational level.Spot coking coal prices in the markets seem to have stabilized, albeit at low levels, and supply constraints could lead to a slight increase in prices in the coming quarters. However, until prices return to a level of at least 200 USD / t, NWR will have trouble getting into the black.

For investors should not be so important whether NWR in 3Q2012 recognized several million losses or profits, are other important factors. Attention should be focussed primarily for comment on the development of the market environment in Central Europe (coal and coke prices, inventory levels, demand from the steel industry) and any new information to Debiensko. From the perspective of their own financial results for 3Q2012 seen as the key to how they will develop operational costs, because at the current low prices of coal NWR management is the ability to find additional savingspivotal in OPEX, although very difficult, challenge.

The whole prediction results for 3Q2012 NWR download here.

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New World Resources: predikce výsledků za 3Q2012

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