Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  November 07, 2012 17:01:00

Crown on Wednesday further weakened

Czech koruna today launched its trading below 25.30 CZK / EUR. However, even in the morning and started depreciating exchange rate CZK / EUR and began testing 25.35 resistance. Then during the afternoon and managed to break after 16 hour, the koruna traded around 25.40 CZK levels / EUR.
Failed, however, nor the surrounding currencies in the region, the Polish zloty attributed to losses in connection with meetings of the Polish central bank. While the central bank expected to cut its key rate by 25 bps to 4.50%, However, Governor Belka announced that this decision is only the beginning of the cycle cut rates.According to the governor, however, it is uncertain whether this will be a significant reduction in cycle or not, since the current inflation is still high. However, the rate reduction will be in place if the data point to the long-term economic slowdown and inflationary pressures are limited. The risk of recession in the Polish economy, meanwhile, sees the governor of a small (central bank forecasts for next year's economic growth between 0.5 to 2.5% and inflation between 1.8 to 3.1%).
Tomorrow we will see in the region of the Hungarian trade balance for September and the Czech unemployment rate for October. In the period January-September unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage points (SA), with most of this growth has occurred in recent months. In October, the unemployment rate according to our estimates further increase by 0.1 percentage points to 8.9% (SA).Not seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is expected to stagnate at 8.4%. In the following months, the situation on the labor market should continue to deteriorate. Industrial companies will be recruiting new staff cautious, rather a decrease in production can be expected layoffs. The situation in the construction industry also does not inspire much optimism. Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, today announced that modifies the methodology of calculation of the unemployment rate (instead of the economically active population will be used for the calculation of the total population aged 15-64 years). Until the end of the year, the Ministry will report the unemployment rate according to the old and new methodologies.
Czech swap curve fell in the middle along its entire length - short end by about 1 bp and longer by 4 bb, he followed the movement of the euro counterpart.Ministry of Finance on Wednesday offered to sell two bonds, one with a fixed coupon of 3.40% / 15 and the other with a variable coupon and maturing in 2023. Quantity offered was only 2-6 billion CZK for both bond together, total ministry sold securities worth 4.1 billion CZK. In competitive stage was demanded CZK 11.9 billion, the average yield on a bond with a fixed coupon of 0.299% reached.

Author: Jiri Skop

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