Cyrrus (Cyrrus)
Markets  |  November 08, 2012 10:27:31

Joint Stock breakfast 11.08 - USA, China, Greece, results, macro

Overview of the main events for Thursday, the 8th November 2012



Second worst election day since 1940


Communist Party Congress begins in China


Greece approved savings


Power companies


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14:30 application

10:30 Spain bonds in 2015, 2018, 2032
Molycorp after market


Yesterday greatest declines in June

  • It was the second worst election day since 1940
  • The worst was the day after the elections in 2008, the Dow fell by 5% (-10% in 2 days)

Yesterday's trading

Met with several factors, which together contributed to declines

  • U.S. election result - I do not think it was the most important reasonrenewed debate on fiscal cliff (about however has been known for a long time)
  • Revision growth released by the European Commission
  • Comment Draghi notably the impact of the crisis on Germany
  • Nervousness before the vote in Greece
  • Nervousness before Congress Communist Party of China



  • Deliveries of new aircraft (August, MoM) -3.3% -2.3% estimate


  • Today begins the Communist Party Congress in China
  • Will change her boss - this has to be the current vice-president
  • The current president said that China must double GDP per capita in 2020



  • Exports fell the most since April


  • Yesterday general strike
  • Prime enforced savings package in parliament (153 for, 128 against, 18 abstained, 1 absent)
  • Savings would be about 11 billion
  • It was a necessary, but not sufficient condition for further bailout tranche
  • Agreed to reduce pensions, salaries and benefits
  • Another point is the budget approval



  • OK revenues, operating profit and net profit of CZK 2 billion lower
  • The reason mainly Albania, which showed a further loss of 1.5 billion CZK, although the half-year results said that in the second half was no loss expected, while maybe get some money back
  • Again also reduced the full-year target of electricity generation, which is the third time this year - it's a fact so ripe that the CEZ management loses credibility among investors, because this year has repeatedly said something that did not apply for 3 months
  • Reduce annual guidance for Albania: EBITDA vs. 85 billion CZK. CZK 87.9 billion, net profit of CZK 40.0 billion vs. CZK 41 billion
  • Reducing guidance on the market certainly was not counted, all numbered with the fact that despite the problems in Albania can meet the original objectives, especially because he did a solid lead in the 1H and helping them to other things such as revaluation MOL (in 3Q positive again)
  • Overall, clearly negative, perhaps with a positive hope that Albania is a temporary issue that might solve it as soon as possible


  • The results are slightly weaker in operating income, good cost risks and operating costs
  • Net profit slightly below market estimates
  • The relatively large decline in deposits, mainly from companies (due to the poor state of the economy), loans grew solidly contrast = pressure on interest income primarily from interest margins on deposits
  • For investors, the top-line now essential, decrease in interest income and fees will discuss a lot of CC, it looks fairly large vs. what is the KB habit in recent quarters
  • Due to lower operating income results are slightly negatively

Fortuna 3Q

  • Slightly higher staked with a stronger segment of sports betting
  • Gross win but below the market and my expectations. From the selected bets accordingly in winnings paid off more than expected
  • Below expectations then the revenues and EBITDA
  • The positive is that the losses from the lottery does not increase dizzyingly 3Q. Only about 0.5 million € to 3.5 M € 9M
  • Year outlook of the company, which counts the loss of lottery in EBITDA in the range 4-5 M € will probably fulfilled
  • Completed and an overall analysis of the lottery, continue to plan to get into the lottery during 1H profit next year
  • Published also achieved gross winnings from betting exchange rate for October. They were higher by 47.6% yoy (it was a lot of surprising sports results)
  • Negatively are low level achieved EBITDA, the CC is perhaps also expresses how looks a net profit (due to the dividend). Outlook is positive


  • They are on track to meet the targets for 2012
  • EBIT of EUR 537 miles vs est 492 million
  • Sales of EUR 12.3 billion vs est 12.1bn
  • Better

Deutsche Post

  • Sales of EUR 13.8 billion vs est 13.7 billion
  • EBIT of EUR 604 miles vs est 641 million
  • EPS € 0.31 vs est. € 0.3
  • Confirms outlook for 2012
  • Do not feel the slowdown in Europe
  • But in the next 6-12M await difficult conditions
  • +0.4% Premarket


  • In Q3 grew by 4%
  • This year and next year will have record sales and profits
  • However, the profit outlook of EUR 780 million fell short of estimates of 801 million EUR
  • 3Q sales in line
  • 3Q profit of EUR 344 miles vs est 327 million EUR
  • In particular, emerging markets to help them
  • Confirms earnings guidance for 2012, but reduced sales outlook
  • -1.4% Premarket

Deutsche Telekom

  • EBITDA 4.78 billion vs est 4.69 billion
  • Revenue was slightly better than estimates
  • Written off 7.4 billion € for the T-Mobile USA
  • FCF of EUR 2.34 bln vs est 1.64 billion
  • T-Mobile USA lost 492 thousand. contract customers for 3Q (est -450 thousand).
  • Confirmed the outlook for 2012 and the dividend for 2012 (€ 0.7)
  • +1.3% Premarket


  • Confirm the views of 08/11/2012
  • 3Q sales of EUR 3.94 billion vs est 3.92 billion
  • Profit of EUR 323 miles vs est 316 million
  • Expect growth everywhere except in some European countries
  • Overspending they are doing to their savings plan
  • Reduced debt by nearly 10%
  • +0.8% Premarket


  • Confirmed the outlook for 2012 as it published 2 days ago


  • Gains vs EUR 78 miles 83 miles est. EUR
  • Interest profit 1.38 bln vs est EUR 1.3 billion
  • EBIT of EUR 216 miles 158 miles vs est EUR
  • They grow in Q4 risk reserves
  • EBIT falls in 4Q
  • Repays the loan tranche from 1.LTRO 1Q2013
  • -0.5% Premarket


  • Propose a dividend 3EUR
  • By 2014, they want to save 6 billion euros, because they fall in 2013 profit
  • Contracts grow slightly in 2013
  • Profit of EUR 1.48 billion vs est 1.41 billion EUR
  • Revenues slightly above expectations
  • +0.7% Premarket
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