World markets  |  November 08, 2012 17:30:51

Outcome of the U.S. election markets calmed down, but more uncertainty on the horizon / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: the 5th week 11th 2,012


Obama's victory in the presidential election fulfilled the expectations of the majority and the markets fell away one of the uncertainties with which they had been counted. Further uncertainty on the horizon, however, and that is the so-called fiscal cliff. This name came to the attention of the professional public in February this year, when he said in his speech before Congress was first used by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke.

In this speech, Bernanke warned of the consequences of automatic budget cuts that will come into force at 01.01 2013, which is likened to the fall of the "fiscal cliff." It is a phenomenon whose origin was confirmed by agreement between Republicans and Democrats in August last year, when negotiating to increase the U.S. debt ceiling and the potential for which the United States earned a reduction in credit rating from S & P. In addition to early next year and will expire tax breaks enforced by the Bush administration.

To avert or at least mitigate threats arising from the fiscal cliff will have to come to an agreement on the grounds of Congress, currently controlled by Republicans. Obama therefore expect tough negotiations and markets, and in this sense, Romney wins the Republican friendly. The fundamental difference in the approach Democrats and Republicans to reduce debt is that Republicans want to go the way of reducing government spending and without increasing taxes. Democrats are also to survey the state, but also support an increase in some taxes.

Financial markets still fiscal cliff did not pay too much attention, after all, there were many other threats, which require their attention. But it would be foolish to underestimate the risk.If American politicians agreed, that enters into force, although tools would reduce the deficit by up to USD 600 billion, but the consequences would have been signed by the economy, reduce U.S. GDP by 4-5% yoy and the economy would revert into a recession, if not depression. It is quite clear how financial markets would react.

Absolutely ideal scenario would be a deal in Congress, which would have resulted in the extension of tax relief and reconciliation only selective cuts. I assume that the negotiations will not be easy but, waiting for us very tense winter. It is also possible that Congress could not agree to and visible consequences of a fall from a cliff fiscal policies are able to reason and at the beginning of next year will be retroactive agreement dampening effects of these automatic restrictions.

George Šimara, CYRRUS


Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in the next month and a half, a week from 5 11th 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
Second 11th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
980.93
964.60
960
ˇ -1.66
950-985
1
4
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 093,16
13 054,40
13020
ˇ -0.30
12802 - 13300
2
3
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 982,13
2 979,40
2,960
ˇ -0.09
2 907 - 3 100
1
4
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 868,50
5 781,00
5,760
ˇ -1.49
5 688 - 5 900
1
4
DAX (Germany)
7 363,85
7 259,20
7,250
ˇ -1.42
7138 - 7400
1
4
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
9 051,22
8 831,60
8,810
ˇ -2.43
8700 - 9 000
0
5


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
Second 11th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
980.93
999.40
1,000
^ 1.88
990-1 010
5
0
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 093,16
13 332,00
13220
^ 1.82
12 900 - 13 700
4
1
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 982,13
3 150,60
3,050
^2.33
2 850 - 3 200
4
1
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 868,50
5 914,40
5,922
^ 0.78
5750 - 6 000
4
1
DAX (Germany)
7 363,85
7 341,20
7,406
ˇ -0.31
6850 - 7550
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
9 051,22
9 018,60
9,013
ˇ -0.36
8750 - 9200
2
3

Rating this week performed:

  • Menčík Thomas, George Šimara - CYRRUS
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.czassume no responsibility for these differences.

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