Research (Investicniweb.cz)
Currencies  |  November 08, 2012 18:41:31

The crown, the dollar and the euro in the New Year and Spring glance Czech investment professionals



Who's in it to make sense? In Europe debt crisis continues to impact on economic growth in the United States central bank relaxes monetary policy, the lowest possible rates and the CNB holds. How do they koruna against the euro and the dollar at the end of the year and the first half of 2013? We asked the Czech investment professionals.

Ľuboš Mokráš

Analyst, Czech Savings Bank

EURUSD exchange rate at the end of the year we see at 1.30 in the first half of 2013, slightly above 1.30. Waiting fiscal problems around the reef and the increase in the debt ceiling and the related market nervousness and pressure against the dollar. We also assume the relative calm in the EMU, ie no significant worsening debt crisis. We do not even have to be practically used OMT program offered by the ECB, even though it would be good for Spain with the ECB agreed to the request for intervention if necessary.

Our current forecasts of EURCZK is 25.10. Recent developments, especially CNB reduction interventions and threats, so the crown significantly increased the likelihood that it will be somewhat weaker crown rather than our prediction. However, do not expect anything dramatic, thus weakening over 26.00. Most likely variation between 25.00 and 25.80.Worsening debt crisis in the EMU might temporarily get a crown over 26,00 (counting with it), a truly significant weakening over 28.00 would need a serious systemic crisis. CNB interventions with counting according to us could intervene if the crown significantly strengthened (to 24.00, which is unlikely), or if it has dramatically weakened the Czech economy, especially consumer demand.

Miroslav Frayer

Analyst, Commercial Bank

The development of the global economy and hence exchange rates should influence several factors. In the United States will undoubtedly fiscal measures. Current legislation will lead to the end of the cancellation of several fiscal stimulus that has supported consumer demand. Thus it will depend mainly on the U.S. government to enforce measures that would impact completion of existing fine. If not, this will lead to a significant attenuation of restriction in the U.S. economy next year.

On the European continent, mainly waiting for a formal request from Spain for assistance. It would be paradoxically could lead to an easing in the markets. Big question mark also hangs over Greece, which wants to apply for a two-year deferral of the conditions under which they have been granted financial assistance.For economic development will be important, whether in Germany, the main engine area, there is a significant slowdown.

For further development of the euro will be particularly important to restore confidence, but which now limit the mentioned problems in Spain and Greece. The current divergent economic developments in the U.S. and EMU records certainly the U.S. dollar. However, even against him speak several factors - fiscal restraint and another round of quantitative easing, which is likely to be announced early next year. Overall the EURUSD exchange rate should run in the first half of next year rather correct below 1.25.

In the near term, the development of the crown mainly affected by the threat of intervention by the central bank. She'd had to the period of record low interest rates used as an additional instrument of monetary policy.We see the pressures and more on the weaker crown, although it is possible that some speculators attempt to market the central bank to provoke action could lead to its temporary strengthening. Crown would be in the rest of the boundaries fluctuate around 25 crowns per euro in the first half of 2013 could then solidify slightly below this level.

Lubomir Lots

Analyst, Saxo Bank

At the end of the year we expect 1.20 euros per U.S. dollar in the first half of 2013, the dollar will strengthen to 1.15. An important factor may be to achieve fiscal cliff. If Obama and Congress failed to conclude an agreement would come into force automatic budget cuts and higher taxes.

Public expenditure is much more direct contributor to GDP than quantitative easing. This could prove to be positive for the USD, as the U.S. economy worsened prospects collide asset prices and risk-taking, which other currencies weaken far stronger than U.S. dollar, which is still considered a safe currency.

An equally important factor is the critical challenges facing the EU. If politicians continue to insist on the model of "saving for savings" targets next year EURUSDv below.

David Marek

Chief Economist, Patria Finance

For a long time I hold EURUSD exchange rate estimate for the end of this year to 1.27. The key risks that may affect (only) foreign exchange markets by the end of this year, the events in the Eurozone (Greece, Spain) and fiscal cliff in the U.S.. Whereas it is my opinion changeover still overestimated due to economic parameters area and U.S. expect more inclined to attrition. At the end of next year based on my rate 1.23 EURUSD.

Predicting exchange rate is now difficult because of the influence of the CNB. The central bank stopped selling the proceeds of foreign exchange reserves, which would weaken the crown, or at least not to help her workout. The air is also a threat of actual interventions. I originally had for the end of this year, an estimate EURCZK 25.10 and for the end of next year EURCZK 24.70, in the middle of the year would probably be somewhere between the two values.

Peter Gapko

Chief Economist, GE Money Bank

The dollar could end up slightly weaken, which may cause the results of past elections just where the current president won. He makes no secret support steps the Fed, which has a real chance to rate move. At the end of the year we could see the dollar to the euro at levels around 1.30. In the first half of next year will depend greatly on how quickly Europe is getting out of the current economic downturn and how the U.S. will deal with the fiscal cliff. Economic problems in Europe are far greater than in the U.S., so we could see the euro weaken back to around 1.27.

If deepen the current economic problems in the Czech Republic is likely to currency interventions against the crown of the CNB. In this case crown weakens and could reach the level of 25.80 Euro per year end.If stopping the recession and a slight recovery already in the first half of next year, it would be half of the crown could return to stronger values ??and touch in the first half and under 25 crowns per euro.

What a view to give the crown and another dollar investment experts to learn the investment site

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