Roman Skalický (Lutherus)
Czech markets  |  November 09, 2012 10:42:35

Week Obama victory in terms of market

Home of the week took place in key global markets, especially in anticipation of the results of the U.S. elections preidentských that from Tuesday to Wednesday confirmed a continuation of existing policy B. Obama. Although the outcome of this election gives hope for continued monetary stimulus, but also makes it difficult to reach agreement on the solutions to "fiscal cliff." Reaction of investors to the "old-new" USA was the first man on the Wednesday floors positive. Market optimism but the afternoon cooled new forecast of the European Commission, which assumes a deeper recession in the EU and the Czech Republic. Subsequent comments ECB chief Mario Draghi, who said that the recent developments in the EU begins to fall and the economy of Germany, the markets turned from positive to strongly negative.The following day (Thursday), however, reforms approved by the Greek Parliament with a positive expectation of the output of the ECB meeting and subsequent press conference Mario Draghi have brought parquet short-term optimism. At meetings or press conferences ECB brought anything but revolutionary. At the end of the day in addition to markets news arrived that the next tranche of aid to Greece will be postponed to the complete report "Troika", which may mean postponing several weeks. That is why yesterday's conclusion as well as the current course of trading on Friday European markets looks more prudent "přešlapávání in place."

The Prague Stock Exchange has brought the ongoing earnings season next Tuesday the results of Telefónica Czech Republic, which were broadly in line with expectations. However, the market reaction was negative and the shares also due to reduced subsequent recommendations Erste Bank ("reduce", target 360 CZK), Commercial Bank ('hold', target 370 CZK) and Renaissance Capital ("sell", target 320 CZK) gradually weakened rather . Currently is trading around 378 CZK. On Wednesday, added the results of ČEZ, KB and Fortuna. Results ČEZ and Commercial Bank may be assessed as weak, but while CEZ has returned to levels around 715 CZK, KB shares weakened with shops and under 3800 CZK. The company's shares were traded Fortuna almost no reaction.At the end of the week the results of CEZ appreciated BNP Paribas reduction target price by 4% to 865 CZK with protruding recommendation "outperform" and Commerzbank reduction target price from 860 to 740 CZK or recommendation to "hold" from previous "add". In the afternoon today, investors still expect results of KITD. For NWR, despite the report from Moody's rating outlook to reduce "stable" from "positive" to avoid significant reaction. It also shares CME reduced after recommendations from commercial banks to "hold" from "buy" and target price reduced from 9.6 to 6 USD strengthened in the coming days and up to Friday's report on the intended sale of two TV stations are back close to 105 CZK .Similarly, the reduction in the share price target of VIG to 40.6 € 38.2 resulted in growth to levels around 870 CZK, of which shares weakened until the end of the week due to uncertainty in the markets.

Taking into account the assumption for the next developments in the exchange floors partial disappointment of American investors who expected a change in the policy, in addition inferior bargaining position of Cabinet B. Obama to address "fiscal cliff" in the U.S., the uncertainty in Europe about the potential impact of the debt crisis and the still healthy and "pull" of the economy and not least postponing financial assistance to Greece, I would recommend investors with caution and in particular the careful selection of titles for any speculation on growth.


Ing. Milan Andrys


Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Lutherus s.r.o. investiční zprostředkovatel registrovaný Českou národní bankou

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