Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  November 12, 2012 07:57:00

Euro against the dollar on the bottom of a two-month


Common European currency last week was not very successful, though against the U.S. dollar has lost about three-quarters percent. First time in two months as a course at the end of the week just got even under 1.2700 USD / EUR.

While the euro hurt adverse macroeconomic indicators, the U.S. data however continue in a series of positive results. And nothing changed on either end of last week. French industrial data disappointed and confirmed that the recession in the euro area is still approaching its end, on the contrary. Markets also re nervous about the situation of Greece. Unwillingness of European finance ministers automatically sanctify another package of financial aid to Greece, this time in the amount of 31.5 billion EUR means a further increase tensions.According to the latest statement of the German Ministry of Finance is not very likely that Greece financial assistance received by the end of the month. And despite yesterday's approval of the draft budget for 2013, the Greek Parliament. Conversely, in the U.S. we have lived to see the end of the week in the rise of consumer sentiment University of Michigan for a five-year maximum.

With the introduction amotný week will be the fundamental point of view completely uninteresting when you confess basically any fresh economic indicators. The reason is mainly Veterans Day in the U.S., for the feast is the markets will shut. Are the rest of the week but we will see the publication of important data. From the U.S. it will be the October retail sales (in the middle), which should reflect in recent months increasing consumer confidence.The first meeting of the fiscal brake to meet this week re-elected President Obama with party leaders. Uncertainty Fiscal year 2013 is very significant - negative fiscal impulse to the economy may exceed two percentage points in the case that the current legislative situation will not change and all temporary tax incentives will be terminated. On the contrary, if extended, will obviously impact is zero. In light of the threats reduce its rating, however, the United States zero correction in the public finances can not afford. The result thus likely to be a compromise solution (SG expects a negative fiscal impact over one percentage point). With regard to the European data, investor attention will be directed to Thursday and published preliminary estimates of GDP figures for Q3. For the euro area as a whole Société Générale economists expect zero quarterly growth.For this will hide the rise of 0.2% in Germany and France, and vice versa 0.3% decline in Italy and Spain. Overall, the economic fundamentals were again recorded more U.S. currency. Designated marked appreciation is already limited and this is also due to fiscal uncertainty discussed.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

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