Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  November 14, 2012 09:36:15

Morning Report 14.11 - Greece not sell enough orders, the U.S. budget deficit grew more than expected

The EY Events

·          Germany: ZEW index, which reflects the confidence of German investors in the local economy, in November fell to -15.7 points. A similar index for the whole euro area in November fell to -2.6 points.

·          EU: Greek Finance Minister J. Sturnaras said that the risk that a country goes bankrupt, is very high. Country last week approved further austerity measures and also an austerity budget for next year. Finance ministers of the euro area has so far failed to agree on the release of the next tranche of money from the total rescue package. Yesterday's sale of treasury bills (short-term bonds) resulted in only a partial success, if Greece did not receive the necessary 5 billion euros.

·USA: The state budget deficit in October rose to 120 billion dollars, which is about 22 billion dollars more than the previous year. October is the first month in the U.S. fiscal year. During the past fiscal year, which ended at the end of September, the deficit totaled 1.09 trillion dollars. Fast growing U.S. debt is currently one of the most pressing problems of the local economy. By the end of the year to be re-elected President B. Obama and opposition Republicans agreed to consolidate public finances. If agreement is not reached, there is the U.S. 'fall from the fiscal cliff ", ieactivation of the automatic cuts on the expenditure side of the budget and tax increases, which the world's largest economy certainly plunged back into recession.

The development of the foreign exchange market

·          Crown during yesterday weakened. The currency pair exchange rate with the euro in the morning the water went 25.40 CZK / EUR, where trading took place during the afternoon hours. Currently there are much more reasons why it could further weaken the crown. In addition to poorer data from the domestic economy and rhetoric of the Czech National Bank is the main driver worse sentiment in the financial markets, which does not want to risk assets. Crown and by the end of the week has room for weakness. Against the dollar trading took place mostly above 20 CZK / USD.

·          Failed even to other Central European currencies. Polish zloty weakened during the course of the afternoon dimensioned levels around 4.18 PLN / EUR. Except weaker values ??were not near the level of 4.19 PLN / EUR. Losses scored the Hungarian forint.

·          Euro against the dollar remains under selling pressure. Yesterday he got deeper beneath the surface of 1.27 USD / EUR, but further weaken significantly. Market developments rather speak to a further weakening of the euro in the coming days or weeks.

Today's expected dates and events                            

·          EU: Industrial production (September).

·          U.S.: Retail sales (October).

Miroslav Novak

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