Currencies  |  November 14, 2012 13:50:54

The split between the Eurogroup and the IMF

In those days it peaked for longer-long dispute with the IMF Eurogroup, which relates externally only Greece, but inside this is a contradiction of two ways solution to the crisis. The IMF pushes it in order to start to apply the actual crisis solution methods, respectively. in addition to the investigation, also implicates transcription debts. Since the nedošetríme for prosperity, we can start up a unique deflationary spiral. Deflationary pressures that offset the inflationary central banks so that Net equilibrium exists. However, Greece shows that this process is far too slow. Therefore, the IMF pushed for the second haircut, which would after banks now bearing the government.The fact, however, does not want to hear politicians, because it's political suicide what the IMF as an unelected institution with limited responsibility for his mistakes, of course, does not understand.

If the Greek project fails, president Lagarde IMF not to refer anyone. However, be responsible to their shareholders (other states, led by the U.S.) and are therefore trying to protect their capital. So politicians whose government can fall very rapidly (from start of the crisis, it is becoming less of countries whose governments have completed their parliamentary term), are trying to protect (mostly) ourselves and (also) of its constituents. If part of debt relief from Greece, priznajú losses and the tie must cover The investigation or higher given. For the economy of one worse than the other. However, Greece should it uľavilo, fewer debts mean lower interest costs. So Greece needs a respite, otherwise, the situation will worsen.Eurozone prefers to stretch the period for compliance with the goals, the IMF prefers observance of time limits and tougher action. However, use common sense while it looks like the IMF and the truth sooner or later, we will see a odpúšťanie debts and award losses. We can not guarantee and does everything at the same time expect us does not cost you anything. Politicians have so far only scroll your goals for the future and talking about the publisher solutions which, however, they do not want (or did not know) objectify.

Looking at the market, however, is increasingly starting seem that risky assets looking to unwind from recent declines (mainly shares) and looking for an excuse to growth. She has not yet reached because the data from the euro areawere weaker and the BoE to his views on the economy is also very pleased. Today, we have more in retail sales Talon USA (which have a potential start up risk-on) and FOMC Minutes (where there is more neutral but eventual officially comment indicating what what would become Operation Twist after an expiration, the market will certainly be interested). If today would therefore come good governance, we could see a bounce up, but while that would only be a correction of the last overflow and not turnover trend. In the next few weeks, because we have only talks about fiškálnom reef without much chance of an official agreement before Christmas, Brussels and clueless Chinese economy, which has yet to wins . Good governance does not UK, have made progress unique Japanese.

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker

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