Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Commodities  |  November 15, 2012 16:40:00

Crown on Thursday lost

Czech crown on Thursday failed when weakened from morning levels slightly above 25.40 CZK / EUR 25.60 up to the border. Conversely surrounding currency in the region reinforce the Hungarian forint and the Polish zloty to around 16th hours attributed to gains of 0.4%. For attrition rate stood next comment Governor M. Singer. He reiterated that an additional tool for easing of monetary conditions, the rate CZK / EUR and the middle of next year, you might need a looser monetary policy. Key resistance for CZK / EUR rate is at around 25.80 / 25.90.
The regional data we have now waited GDP data.They confirmed that the Czech and Hungarian economy is still in recession, while Slovakia their growth of 0.6% QoQ is again a regional winner. Czech GDP in Q3 12 according to preliminary CSO estimate decreased by 0.3% q / q (-1.5% y / y), which was below our (0.0% q / q) and market expectations (market expected to decline 0.2% q / q). The result was even worse in comparison with the CNB forecast, the central bank expected to grow by 0.2% QoQ. For our annual estimate of GDP (-0.8%) are today's numbers downward risk. However important will possible revision. From this perspective, we have to wait until 7 December, when it will be published, including the advanced data structures. In our view, nothing changes. In the remainder of this year and the beginning of the next one, stagnation of the economy. Over the next year, GDP should grow by 0.3%.
Besides GDP data were published and Czech prices in industry and agriculture. October industrial producer prices increased in mom terms by 0.2%. In annual terms, we recorded growth of 1.9%. Although in October, a decrease in prices in the group of coke and refined petroleum products (due to lower oil prices in CZK terms), on the contrary, increase in prices of food products. Prices in agriculture again recorded strong growth. After September, a jump of 3.1% m / m in October were higher by 1.9% m / m Cumulatively, ascribed to agricultural prices since the beginning of 12.4%. In annual terms, agricultural producer prices rose by 12.5%, the strongest growth over the past 14 months. The current situation is mainly due to lower domestic harvest.According to CSO estimates example expected grain yield by one-fifth lower than last year.
Czech swap curve is significantly changed on Thursday. The bond market was more alive when sold bonds with longer maturities. ASW spreads at the longer end so stretched.

Author: Jiri Skop

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