Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Commodities  |  November 19, 2012 10:09:01

The price of natural gas remains high

Commodity, which last week strengthened interestingly, was an American natural gas. Grew mainly before weekly inventory statistics from the Agency EIA. That brought a seasonal decline in inventory first, the reason was the increased demand caused by below-average temperatures. Consumption of 18 billion cubic feet of groundwater supplies caused the "earliest" seasonal selection since 2007. Over the past five years in a given week and vice versa inventories grew an average of 17 billion cubic feet.

Forecasts far indicate that this winter in the United States may be cooler than the previous one. Declining stocks could then keep the price of gas, especially during January and February, when the peak heating season. This means that the price of gas is likely to remain in the band from 3.5 to 4.25 U.S. dollars. Above the $ 4.25 gas would then lose its competitiveness in comparison with the U.S. heating coal.

The past winter was the fourth warmest since the days when the temperature statistics measured. This helped cause the collapse of natural gas prices at the beginning of this year when stocks are not consumed at normal speed. Back then, it has raised concerns that during this replenishment, which lasts from April to November, they would not be filling the maximum capacity reserves. But as we all know, eventually this factor did not show, because there was an unprecedented transition from coal to gas, which helped to stabilize prices and inventory levels.

Ole Hansen, commodity strategist at Saxo Bank

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