Markets  |  November 19, 2012 14:25:11

Mausoleum issues

Finally, last week the bore in a gentle Optimize after the first act of President Obama with representatives from Congress. Of course, dealt with the fiscal cliff. were the first official representations as salons of Brussels (we believe that we have been able agreement ... the conversation tone was completely different than the last time ... the agreement is on the way ... etc.). Nevertheless, it can not to believe that, after several weeks of negotiations and tensions Congress will come with a plan, at least to resolve the most burning challenges and gaining time to strategickejšie solutions.The reason why you believe the U.S. is that there is already a plan that needs to be plumb OSEK that was receivable Democrats (especially on the question of public spending) even Republicans (especially on the question of taxes). Because both parties are in smth budge, it will not be easy. But the deal ultimately falls. Because negotiating their two sides.

And that is the exact opposite of what is happening in the United States, European malfunctioning (which is the idea of the Brussels EU). There are fundamental things stretch for years and there is no plan or agreement. Most burning to see it mainly in two important points, Banking Union and the Greek project. That is, we will be mostly rehash, so when a banking union flax remind that it is not at all clear when or is any Banková Union will be because of the original plans just a few months old (if you anyone remembers abeginning of 2012 when markets reached bottom) has successive objections shall be left nothing. Zaspomínajme you:

It was first talked about, the banking union arise until we have national supervision order shall do at home (especially on the question of the recapitalization). Then they talked about the fact that the ECB can not supervise over all the banks so will oversee The largest of flax. Consequently, Germany has said it does not want the ECB to dozerala over his insurers. After that it wanted a big change in legislation to allow the ECB oversee the banks of Germany. Because in Germany there are many small banks nationals with ties to local government. Houses large German bank (Deutsche Bank or Commerzbank) see the benefits that should be under the supervision of the ECB (supranational guarantees).Are against public sector banks, which says that operates with lower risks, and therefore does not need further guarantees to falls, and the team even more oversight. Čerešničkou torte are expressions of the UK, which wants the interbank Union as Takumi block, because it fears competition for its banking sector. Even in September, he spoke, that the ECB should oversee at least over large banks since the beginning of 2013. According to us, it is not very realistic.

Greece is still a part of herself. After that, as in the middle of large protests was approved budget, still did not get the tranche of aid. This is frozen since June. Mainly the reason is that it is obvious that the Greek program advanced in the way and initially agreed objectives are not being met. One of the reasons is that the Greeks failed to meet goals on time and sadly (rate and form of privatization is only the top of the iceberg), second, that Brussels has its own economic forecasts by either paralelnom set in outer space, or just fulfilling a political assignment. Because they expect that Greece will grow in 2012 by 1.1% (expectation of spring 2011, the reality should be a decrease of 6%), and then expect that Greece will grow in 2013 by 0.7% (expectation from autumn 2011) respectively. they will not fall (expectation of spring 2012) and then said that in 2013 the economy to decline month about 4.2%, but in 2014 it will grow by 0.6% really does not need a comment.

These days, however, not on economic forecasts, but about how much the euro area to provide an answer derailment of Greek rescue plan.First, the IMF pushes the haircut that would get a Greek debt back to the original trajectory (120% of GDP in 2020), on the other hand, we have a resistance area and efforts to spurn the problem further into the future. At all applied for more time. For these two weeks were respectively. are two meetings Eurogroup, which had to give a definitive answer to the question of Greece. We will be very surprised if it was really so. Because the strategy is clearly Brussels by its surroundings communications has also bedevil markets so that forgot where north is. This, however, is what appears to be increasingly likely is that once the Greek haircut will need to make. And we are witnesses of the same that we have already seen many times.Ted shift from NIE NIE through, for uniqueness of extreme cases, NOT in the next period, YES if the conditions, then yes, because it is historically inevitable and conditions shall be adjusted. Is mainly against Germany, which has elections and before even starting skloňovať and the new rescue package in 2014 . But other countries are against any change to further aid for Greece. Problems are thus neriešia, only postpones. But this is nothing new.

Father's recent presidential candidate Mitt Romney, George Romney (triple Governor of Michigan), who disagreed with the policy of President Nixon, after his second re-election (Nixon to the presidency in 1972) resigned. In her resign, addressed by the Nixon said:Politicians are Possessed volebnými victory that prevents them from effectively govern. Their principal activity is the struggle to govern, with the leaders of the fight anger voters and thus neriešia real problems. Since this statement has undergone 40 years and do not seem to, that would be something changed.

On your daily chart for U.S. stocks, we see that they are stopped at an annual Supor increasing growth trend 1350th Now we see strong growth, which is caused by the joy of keeping with the increasing growth trend. But the question is what will keep us up. Today we can see only data from realitného market, representations of the Eurogroup will be up tomorrow, and the above does not seem likely that we would have seen at an early-term problem-solving. Rather diskutovanie what mood the market may add. Consequently, we may see a correction to the level of 1380/85, where they are first stronger resistances.And either he comes really good news, or breakthrough will come down and it will be very bad for the bulls.

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker

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