Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  November 19, 2012 15:07:48

U.S. - 3Q GDP revision could lift growth of 2 to 2.9%


According to preliminary estimates, the U.S. Commerce Department in 3Q GDP grew by 2%. Analysts of recent economic data from the estimate that in the first revision, this figure could be increased to 2.9%, which would correspond to the greatest extent of revisions over the last year.

According to analysts, the growth momentum in the U.S. economy in the last quarter gained some noticeable impulses led to improved conditions in the real estate market, improving labor market conditions and generally healthier and stronger family finances. All of this increases consumer confidence, which is positively reflected in the growth of spending, which is crucial for the development of the U.S. economy. Positively by the revision should sign the results of the balance of foreign trade and growth stock recovery than previously estimated.

Index Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index, which compares the development of 38 major economic indicators and forecasts the market for the first time since May of this year moved into positive figures and growth to 0.04 points compared to the June low to -0.4 points.

For 4Q, analysts estimate the fall in growth rate primarily due to the negative impact of Hurricane Sandy and concerns about the downfall of the American economy "fiscal cliff." In the first case, it is estimated that reducing Sandy HD U.S. growth in Q4 by about 0.3 to 0.5%. A similar effect by next year could be a possible fall from a fiscal cliff.

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