Markets  |  November 21, 2012 13:33:16

More questions than answers. Thirdly fiasco

Yester main event was a meeting eurozone finance ministers, which ended very much as it transiting. Fiaskom. Plans and therefore additional, future Monday. Third, for three weeks, taking it to be yet tomorrow will be discussing the EU budget (which is another source hádok, since local governments have to save, because it is a crisis of the EU budget has grow because it's necessary ... you will find no reason to.) The outcome of the meetings of včerajšieho is that not what it seemed to be agreed (two years in addition to Greece, therefore more time) is not understood. And the reason is thatIMF firmly behind thy, and if it is not satisfied, departs from the Greek project.

In order to take this intricate situation, little sprehľadnili, equal to, say, that Greece (or its creditors) to avoid Haircut haircut and can not happen in the next time. And thus it need some zaonačiť and all stanch. And that's exactly what Brussels does, but there is none peaceful certainly not the IMF. First of elementary mathematics. Greek GDP is around € 208 billion (in 2011), and this year projected to fall by 6%, arrives at € 195 billion in 10 months of this year the budget deficit reached € 12.29 billion, while interest form € 11.11 billion, the rest is the primary deficit of the government. So Greek GDP falls by 6%, while Greece also pays 5.6% of GDP per year úrokoch. If the Greeks did not have to pay interest, the primary budget deficit would be only the 0th6% of GDP. This is not sustainable over the path and, therefore, the IMF keeps repeating that it must happen haircut, I mean governments have remitted part debts Greece. And this is the stumbling-block by Germany before the elections (September 2013) does not want to admit. And thus it is said that the interest should be reduced, it will be buying up the debt (it is not entirely clear how, supposedly through the EFSF so that it will be increased guarantees) and will extend the maturity of commitments.

However, it is not entirely clear how they want to accomplish, as of today 180% debt to GDP (the total amount of Greek bonds is € 350 billion) is to become 120%, though the Greek economy contracting by 6% and 5 6% of GDP is to be paid on úrokoch. governments have pushed banks to make at least some bearing the losses for which may be partially or even yourself. However, reluctant to bear the loss themselves (rather guaranteed) and time to stretch.But let Mathematics and buying time can not go on forever. Needless doing so, keep in mind that the Spanish are now problems of the other bikes, but not remain there long. Spaniel Although even they know how to frontload 'money for a rainy day.

Markets should not so much what delight, Fed not say anything new to the stimulus, the Eurogroup not say anything about Greece and the reef is fiškálnom while also quiet. Today is the last day before the day of Thanksgiving (markets are closed tomorrow, Friday, open only half day), we see just the finalization of consumer confidence by the Univesity of Michigan and the U.S. leading indicators have little rozhýbanie trend.Market waits oil lubricates loss after new reports on the bombings in Israel, but today's trading will largely depend on whether or American traders will not want to lock position long before the holidays. If they have sufficient confidence in Tomorrow's good governance, they would not have to happen no bargain. But do not see any reason for growth, and therefore will not come surprisingly good governance.

U.S. stocks yesterday sustain their 200-day average price (200MA), but failed to extend gains after Bernanke's speech was withdrawn and we have seen that even better realitného market data (begun building homes and building permits) are not enough for further growth. Today, they can decide whether or not to continue to rally to the level of 1400, or, conversely, begin the selection test and possible profit level 1360, which is the mainstay of the annual increasing growth trend.

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker

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