World markets  |  November 22, 2012 18:46:04

Just bear market rally? / BIG EXPERT-foreign markets? week from 19 11th 2,012


The decline in equity indices, which accelerated immediately after the announcement of the results of the U.S. presidential election and was replaced a few weeks so indecisive dithering period, pushed under the baton of financial aid to Greece and concerns about the so-called fiscal cliff in the USA at the end of last week, the S & P 500 to the 1350th As of Thursday, and on Friday, however, the index managed to close above that level. Positively tuned znovuzvoleného words of President Obama regarding the debt ceiling increase and significantly good data from the real estate market started to correct turnover. Thanks to strong growth pondělnímu S & P 500 got back above its ten-how, and especially so dvousetdenní average. In this context, it is worth noting little strange behavior index VIX, which often talk as well as the index of fear.It is de facto the market estimate of future volatility, based on the weighted average of the implied volatilities of options on the S & P 500 And very simply, it can be seen as a barometer of sentiment and market expectations. A great deal of attention to the VIX primarily earned in recent days, despite the decline in the shares jumped, as is customary, but stopped at the border 19 points and even tended rather unusually vyklesávat together share index. Tímnedošlo to fulfill one of the popular assertions that the turnover of the market is when the VIX makes a "tip". Anyway, in the last two weeks, in addition there is a decrease throughout the VIX futures curve and the first five nearest futures contracts with maturities also came under the long-term average (roughly around 20 points).Partly this is certainly part of the close of trading in the shortest, the November contract, some cited as another cause of (artificial) support, which give access to their risky assets the central bank through the easing of monetary policy, and finally there is also the part of investors, which is the view that the rule simply ceased to function. And then of course there is a possibility that after a short bear market rally will come next fall and old certainties remain in force. Anyway, at least for non-investment rated bonds, which are very popular asset class in the current quest for yield in a world of zero interest rates, seinvestoři their "leaders" waited. Market volatility in this market is in the last month jumped by more than 60% and the bond funds experienced significant outflows of funds.

For important events for the coming weeks, I consider the Fed meeting and a new outlook. In addition, the conclusion of this year ends TWIST and investors will expect that again will increase or launching other shopping operations. Potential danger from delay negotiations around fiscal cliff, whose solution has much time left. A question mark also hangs over weak macro data in recent weeks, and to what extent they were affected by Hurricane Sandy. On the European side is the key next steps negotiations with Greece and the involvement of the southern wing of the survival mechanisms. Eurogroup meeting also ended up on a blind point and possible write-off of Greek sovereign debt, especially promoted by the International Monetary Fund, carries with it a number of complications and unanswered questions.

Patrick Hudec, Generali PPF Asset Management,
fund manager společnost

Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in the next month and a half, a week from 19 11th 2012th


Week: 19 11th 2,012


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
16th 11th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
970.20
965.75
970
ˇ -0.46
940-983
2
2
Dow Jones (U.S.)
12 588,31
12 818,50
12880
^ 1.83
12550 - 12964
3
1
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 853,13
2 946,25
2,943
^ 3.26
2 900 - 3 000
4
0
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 605,60
5 768,50
5,780
^ 2.91
5680 - 5834
4
0
DAX (Germany)
6 950,53
7 170,50
7,125
^3.17
7120 - 7312
4
0
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
9 024,16
9 159,75
9,065
^ 1.50
9050 - 9459
4
0


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
16th 11th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
970.20
993.25
991.50
^ 2.38
940 - 1 050
3
1
Dow Jones (U.S.)
12 588,31
13 235,50
13171
^ 5.14
12950 - 13650
4
0
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 853,13
2 988,50
3,002
^ 4.75
2 750 - 3 200
3
1
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 605,60
5 835,50
5,871
^ 4.10
5 600 - 6000
3
1
DAX (Germany)
6 950,53
7 241,00
7,332
^ 4.18
6800 - 7 500
3
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
9 024,16
9 175,75
9,150
^ 1.68
8850 - 9553
3
1

Rating this week performed:

  • Menčík Thomas, George Šimara - CYRRUS
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even
com / "> Kurzy.cz assume no responsibility for these differences.

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