Markets  |  November 23, 2012 15:12:32

Friends cohesion (when all they want to learn, and no one to pay)

The last two days are celebrated mainly in the U.S., and thanks the buys (Thanksgiving and Black Friday), and therefore the attention of traders centered mainly on the euro area and partly on the Gaza Strip.

Today will be a lot of important disclosure, we have actually had them well behind. Entrepreneurial mood German IFO survey went beyond expectations, but the euphoria is not a great reason. It was the first increase in the last 6 months and IFO economists warn that although the German economy with is not so bad (industrial export orders and stable), business confidence and investment to the business are the freezing point due to the debt-crisisand still not be excluded or negative growth in 4Q.

If we are mentioning the Gaza Strip, of course, concerns the impact on oil. She erased their gains for the week, and expects what would become after 48h ceasefire, which ends tonight. While silence is occasionally flaky preletením rockets from the Gaza Strip and also speaks to the Assembly, the Palestinians who wish to penetrate into Israel. So still can be fun, but so far have been strong efforts by the international community to maintain peace.

Remains well eurozone, where again fighting rages crisis, solidarity and fight for their own interests. As early as Monday would meet again should the Eurozone finance ministers called Eurogroup and should be reconciled at leastpartial solution for the continuation of Greek project. However, it would first have to negotiate itself Troika, composed of the ECB, the European Commission and the IMF. Until recently, we've been writing about the conflict between the two parties and the IMF, which should fall replies to two questions. How many have actually debt has Greece in the year 3020 (oops - 2020) and as of making the plan at least approximately fulfilled. Eurozone endorsed two years for Greece, moreover, have angered the IMF. O that we had been writing . Current IMF will agree to a long amounting to 124% of GDP in 2020 (formerly 120%) and in exchange for this compromise for the euro area to find € 15 to 17 billion to the debt has actually approached the planned membership level.This should be achieved by reducing the interest rate for Greece and using the profits of the ECB's bond purchases, with € 17 billion Moreover, the use of the EFSF € 10 billion for re-purchase of Greek bonds, what should be take advantage of the fact that the Greek debt has be the purchase price. This could be okay as early as Monday, but so far it is not certain whether to agree the whole story. In the meantime, however, the growth in the euro helps to novembrovým maximaand.

Topic which, while nevplýva markets right but it is more interesting is that the EU budget, which we've been writing about it yesterday, so the numbers are unknown . A new feature is that they are very difficult to arrange any budget at all for the next 7 years and more politicians will be to concentrate on the budget for next year, the last of the current 7-years, that is 2013.An inability to find consensus in the EU that has 27 states, we have been slowly accustomed behold. But here, in the budget, the most beautiful to see how each fights for himself, and Europe it is ... Tej on so it does not matter.

The EU budget is a huge festival redistribution where the county pie in the volume of € 1 trillion. (Well, 1000000000 000). Money Prudie here because it is the law of the well and divide by your current priorities, Brussels, respectively. by the winners of each discipline lobistickej Olympiad, which Brussels is working non-stop. O what is at stake at current deliberations about future budget? Mainly the fact that € 9 billion, which there had come, they came not (it lacked in the year 2011 and it is gradually snowballed) that contributors want to pay less and get more of the beneficiaries.France strongly defended subsidies to farmers (single agricultural policy is mainly French design and French farmers receive the lion's share) is Britain sharply against the budget grew pace than is due (taking it now contributes less than it should, notwithstanding), a similar approach has behold the Netherlands and Denmark. That's what matters most UK, expenditure on staff Brussels. Account for 6% of the budget (the remainder are Eurofound and other transfers). If the proposed budget for 7 years in a volume of 1 trillion., So 6% of which is 60 billion respectively. € 8.57 billion annually on salaries and remuneration. And that's when the number of 754 members of Parliament cost € 11.36 million per year, and therefore almost € 1 million per month.So it makes million EUR per month for each členovaparlamentu (the conversion of the course, not a right to payment), so that these and debated redistributed.

Instead of political wrangling (Kingdom + more countries are saying that spending may not grow in such a pace, the French, that may not be so reducing them, Southern Europe, without eurofondov not growth, etc.) let us mention a few numbers on the example of 2010. Budget was at € 122 billion, the largest single item of expenditure was Agricultural Policy, which forms almost € 56 billion This is composed of the direct subsidization of farmers almost € 40 billion, landscape development, export subsidies, etc. The largest recipient of Frenchmen are (almost € 10 billion), in per capita terms is that Irish people (€ 380 per capita). With regard to who receives the most per year in pure, so are the Poles (€ 8.5 billion), Spaniel (€ 43 billion) and Cypriots (€ 2.5 billion). Slovakia Annual profit € 1.1 billion clean. The biggest contributors are pure Germans (€ 8.9 billion), the UK (€ 5.4) and the French (€ 5.1 billion). What is remarkable is that the list of the biggest recipients figurujú country which later had problems with bubbles and a long. However, this is the result of policies budovateľských Brussels stimulate, stimulate, stimulate. Most popular and top paths are stimulating cohesion funds that have deepen European people, and wipe away the differences between advanced and less advanced areas. In reality, however, can carve more harm than benefit, mentioning the reasons we have already in a complex system lose the connection between the beneficiaries and investors.For those are the biggest payers money in permanently they go to Brussels with us will subsequently appear as velvet, which you so well and we appreciate their use is also gaining illicit practices. But everyone wants to win and therefore lobbied hard for the surcharge may be levied eurofondov, recently we had the summit friend cohesion (15 EU countries + Croatia) when Prime Minister Fico said that he believes that the common voice which contains fragments from Bratislava will natoľko strong that it will heard enough to be compiled when the final numbers. Well certainly hear them and link to sponsors is that where they are to uskromňovať national budgets, it should be cuts even in Brussels. Slovakia may be hard to perceive, as Prime Minister by a majority of investment comes in the Slovak Republic from EU funds.Sooner or later, however, we'll have to encounter with reality, because today it has a huge amount of resources in the Slovak Republic is shifting somewhere (corruption) and a large part of these resources are nahrádzané resources which Brussels also someone gathered together. And although the European Commission President Barroso thinks that the EU budget the team right tool for sustainable economic growth, in fact, this may be a bit differently. But that may be about to see.

Back to the financial marketplace. U.S. stocks yesterday closed the fifth consecutive day in profit (in reality, however, only 4, yesterday was just e-commerce), but still did not get to the level of the 1400th However, while we hold above 1360, The growth outlook is. This morning we see a selection gains, who was after IFO skúpený and ostávame in Gaza 1390/1400, which does not mean that we test slides at the 1400thHowever, the market will await pondelkovú Eurogroup and the return of American businessmen on the market. Back in the U.S. would already be President Obama and debates about fiškálnom reef can continue. Today will only be truncated trading, full we go again on Monday.

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker

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