Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank)
Markets  |  November 23, 2012 14:43:47

How to handle rozkodrcané equity markets in the near future

Growing market in the last days is only a "hint of drowning" before falling again because still a headwind bad macroeconomic news. If someone would have but to seek opportunities, so I invested in Europe to Finland, Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom. In the USA, then to consumer goods, healthcare, IT and Finance

At the end of last week arrived in several indicators showing overselling market and that sentimentnarazil the bottom, and this week the markets turned růstu.Během this correction in a bear market may still markets may strengthen a bit, but then, which I believe will go away and grow Finally, it is proved that it was a "breath drowning" followed by another decline.

How would you with this advice as a stock investor? In Europe, I invested in Finland, Denmark, Germany and Great Britain. These markets tend to overcome other bad mood even when the markets. Nameless sector, since division by states in this case is much more suitable.

As for the U.S., so I assume that you will do well defensive sectors such as consumer goods sector, consumer sector, and healthcare. IT   finance and also have a decent perspective.   Foundation for IT is generally fine and the financial sector can be expected to improve with fewer non-performing loans in the U.S..   Real estate market will continue to improve, anxious valuation of real estate assets should at some point it might normalize and could then be reflected in the income of financial institutions.

So as you can see, it is the states and sectors that are tailored for the pessimistic economic outlook.

Macro headwind

Why am I so concerned about the macro situation? Partly because the central bank's monetary stimulus pumped his ammo and hopefully pass the baton politicians. They hope that economic growth and indicators continue to worsen, because at the moment they do not have any means to fight the recession.

Investors must reckon with a greater risk and there is only one way to do it: to demand a higher risk premium, which reflects a reduction in stock prices. The risk of slower economic growth is definitely on the horizon and increases day by day.

United States

The main risk now lies in the fact that, if there is no agreement about how to resolve the fiscal cliff facing investors fears of an economic downturn. The best scenario with the contraction counts. The head of the U.S. central bank, Bernanke said that the Fed is not able to influence the fiscal shock on the economy to fight. In view of these facts are representatives of American companies more cautious and the mood in the stock market picking up.


Looking at the EU leaders see that they are between a rock. Problems in Europe were again and still postponed and now this situation can backfire. German Prime Minister Merkel enters the election campaign, which certainly will not be easy in the event that a solution to the Greek situation will mean the loss of German citizens.  

France was reduced rating from Aaa to Aa1. It   underscores the growing problems leading euro area countries, also taking over the debt burden from the southern periphery limits where they can go. German industrial production fell and purchasing managers index (PMI) is below 50, which indicates the economic recession. More and more of Europe is contaminated.

When we find a solution for Greece, although removed   one obstacle, but do not remove   the problem. Shares, after a report on the settlement moved a little higher, but then it is the turn of Spain. My overall view is that Spain to help the euro zone will not apply until   nežpremiér Rajoy will use all available options - but do not forget that it's policies.

Peter Bo KIaer, stock analyst, Saxo Bank

 Globální online investiční banka

Saxo Bank je globální investiční banka specializující se na online obchodování a investice na mezinárodních finančních trzích. Saxo Bank umožňuje soukromým investorům a institucionálním klientům obchodovat s FX, CFD, cennými papíry, futures, opcemi a dalšími deriváty a poskytuje i profesionální správu portfolia a fondů díky svým online obchodním platformám oceněným řadou různých ocenění.

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