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Macroeconomics  |  November 27, 2012 04:45:33

Further decline rate in Poland is imminent

The numbers of Polish industrial production for October has brought a positive surprise, but on closer inspection it was only apparent. Although production increased by 4.6%, which was more than the market estimate (2.9%), but after adjusting for the different number of working days, the growth of only 0.6%. In other words, the downturn in the Polish industry is expected to continue, which together with slowing growth in consumption and declining investments means that the growth of the Polish economy in the rest of the year will probably move to levels last observed in 2009.

Not the best (although still great European context) the prospects of the Polish economy are also aware of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee (RPP). Although the committee desetičlenného there is considerable pluralism of opinion, most members of the RPP, according to the minutes of the last meeting agrees on the need for additional easing of monetary policy. Despite the still relatively high inflation expectations of households (3.8% in October on the year ahead) inflation is expected to fall below the central bank's target in the medium term due to downward pressure on wage growth, which in the majority opinion within the RPP requires further decline rates. In a similar spirit, carried by the recent comments of individual members of the RPP.Room for lower rates to lower levels sees sworn hawks Winiecki and Kazmierczak, although both warn against rapid pace of easing monetary conditions and argue that real interest rates should remain positive. Anna Zielinska-Glebocka, which we believe is the median voter in the RPP, said she could imagine lower rates by another 50-75 bps.

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Given that the views in the RPP are certainly not uniform, still do not expect any dramatic pace of monetary easing in the coming months. Recall that at the December meeting at which in all likelihood will reduce rates by 25 basis points, the RPP have no data on GDP growth in the 3rd quarter (according to our estimate of 1.8% y / y), which probably tells a lot about the next steps NBP.

Source: CSOB

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