Cyrrus (Cyrrus)
Markets  |  November 27, 2012 10:00:45, updated

Joint Stock breakfast 27.11 - Greece goes on, flooding macro

Overview of the main events for Tuesday, the 27th November 2012






Better macro, but decreases at low volumes


Knockdown aid to Greece - the problem of delayed


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Upcoming Events

10:30 GB 3Q GDP
11:00 OECD economic outlook for the EZ

14:30 orders of durable goods
15:00 Case Shiller home price index
16:00 Richmond Fed
16:00 Consumer confidence
16:00 home price index

10:30 Spain vouchers



  • Survey favors in parliamentary elections, opposition party
  • This will probably push for more monetary stimulus


  • Drops for no apparent reason
  • Low trading volumes for four years
  • But it was better macros profit industrial firms rose in October, y / yo 20% last month, it was 7.8%
  • Index lowest since 2009



  • Get the next tranche of aid of EUR 34.4 billion
  • Yesterday, the politicians agreed on how to get Greece on the right trajectory (find the "right formula")
    • Reduce their interest rates on debt
    • They moved maturity debt interest by a decade (interest will be returned back to the bailout fund)
    • They moved to the final maturity of the servants in the years 2040-2050
    • They agreed to a buyback of Greek bonds
  • Next tranche but will again depend on the fulfillment of the plan - and it will certainly be a problem
  • In 1Q should receive 9.3 billion euro only if they completed tax reform
  • It even sanctified and Lagarde: "new concessions will help Greece return to the capital markets, unless they make reforms"
  • Besides seeking debt write-offs
  • Formally, this should be agreed on Dec. 13
  • The agreement also unprecedented control as Greece spends money
  • Conclusion: The short-term positive news for markets, but the problem is probably a few months delayed


VIG - 3Q results

  • Net profit of EUR 110 miles 101 miles vs est EUR
  • The positive trend of the first nine months continues
  • VIG strengthens leading market position


  • Highest Since July
  • Analysts at Bernstein published the analysis
  • The market apparently underestimates the potential for growth in sales
  • Bernstein sees sales in 2013 and 2014 by 8% higher than market expectations
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