Investor's window  |  November 29, 2012 09:30:21

For electricity we pay more, CEZ but does not add to profit

The Energy Regulatory Office (ERO) has published figures, according to which the price of electricity for households next year should increase by an average of 2.4%. The fact that energy prices in recent years, almost continuously grow, we have probably all used to. On the face of it párprocentním growth is not unusual. Until we know, it could be far better if we did not have to pay a nearly 40% increase in the contribution of renewable sources (RES). The issue that has been written a lot and I do not want to elaborate on it here, I add a few numbers: if he remained on the contribution of renewable energy sources at the level of this year and all other prices the way they are set up now, we would have paid in the next year on electricitypercent less than this year. If the contribution of renewable energy sources at the level of 2009, ie the period before the solar boom, electricity for households this year would cost nearly ten percent less. In monetary terms, the average household paid for electricity by more than a hundred crowns a month less.

In the past, financial markets coined the popular slogan: "You become more expensive electricity? Buy shares of CEZ and earn the price increase. " As the first paragraph indicates, however, this time is different. ČEZ as primarily a producer of electricity curious about the price of energy on the stock exchange and, as has already been said, no records tear. On the contrary, it is close to several years lows. Although in the context of ČEZ now talking more about the problems in Albania or imminent sale of coal power plants, just key commodity prices, ie power generation, are the factor that affects the price of CEZ shares by far the most. And they are so logically also the reason why shareholders ČEZ recently can happily rub his hands.

It's not just about the actual price of electricity on the market, but for CEZ is even more important that the main reason for a low price of this commodity can be found at extremely low prices for emission allowances in the EU. CEZ is a producer in the European area with below-average emissions, and as such earns high prices for emission allowances (which are almost completely reflected in the price of electricity). The current situation is unfavorable for margin CEZ, which revealed one crucial thing: what would ČEZ shareholders should pay the most attention is the solution of the current system almost collapsing emissions tradingin the EU.

The European Commission has recently proposed postponing auction 900 million emission allowances from the years 2013 to 2015 for the years 2019-2020. It is not enough: one is anticipated surplus allowances on the market now much higher, both allowances must abolish not only postpone the auction. Which is politically very difficult task. Restoring balance in the allowance market is in practice means higher electricity prices.And in the current bleak economic situation in Europe is not something for which the politicians just wanted to fight.

They are therefore bleak prospects CEZ shares? It does not have to be. Difficult market conditions, investors in the valuation of the shares of ČEZ reflected sufficiently. Of course, electricity prices may go down, it is necessary to consider the possible problems related to the supply of coal from Czech coal from next year, to Albania.On the other hand, all of the above factors can very easily and quickly prove to be growth catalysts for CEZ. In summary, market conditions are bad, but the valuation of shares of ČEZ it corresponds. Any positive event thus has a real chance to become the coveted engine that CEZ will raise the levels that correspond to fundamentals. And these levels are in my higher than the current share price indicates ČEZ on the market.

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