TRIMBROKER (TRIMBROKER)
Markets  |  November 30, 2012 11:48:31

Changeable weather on the reef


iPoint.cz Yesterday the U.S. since the start of trading we saw a massive decline in risk assets, primarily U.S. stocks, oil and precious metals. The reason the comments were fiškálnom reef, which is now the main agents at determining Market sentiment. On the attached chart to see the reaction of 27 comments November, when Republicans in the Senate leader Harry Reid said that he is frustrated any way for any progress in negotiations. Both parties Congress should discontinue thereunder tentatively converse and move on to the actual riešeniam. Despite the good číslam of the U.S. economy, we have not seen the continuation of growth and, therefore, there was a decrease, literally panicked after a sale.About 24 hours later, around the House leader, and coincidentally also the budgetary commission chairman John Boehler (Republican) said that he is optimistic on the question of reaching agreement with President Obama. The mood was turned in minutes and we have new peaks. The situation is shown on the hourly chart of the S & P500.

Markets are so large from pessimism turned to optimism and the great mood varies as the weather in April. Please try a little odosobniť from fluctuations that only shows that no one knows when and what the solution will be accepted. Obama makes campaign this week with a small business, will meet today with large corporations (including Goldman Sachs, which is expressed that the plan pozdáva it).The aim is to keep Obama in place incentives and zoškrtať democratic republican. The fact that Obama is not a very non-partisan policies, and Republicans working hard witnessed by his plan to rescue the economy in 2008, when, despite the campaign style, I can not tell you republican or democratic America, but the United States and prompted republikánom to deliver its proposals (delivered) , they ultimately did not take into account because he won the election. Has not shown a great appetite to cooperate even in the summer 2011, when the negotiated on budgetary ceiling. In his defense it should be said that neither the Republicans then nepretrhli flexibility in the negotiations. High Representative Eric Canton Republicans have already expressed earlier this week that neráta with big quarrels and Republicans are aware of who is the master.Expected higher taxes and weaker economy.

And so to today's're dragging the negotiating process. The spokesman of the House John Boehner is open to agreement with Obamom, Democrats will need help to make it passed through the Republican House of Commons. There are 60 Republican group which is strongly anti-tax (together with the Tea Party), I mean Boehner needs to do a plan, which you can also get some Democratic votes. Former spokesman of the House Dennis Hastert (1999 2007) describes the situation so that all they want to deal not begin until the real negotiable. Then they always appear serious contradictions that are likely to behold significantly makes slower the process. Boehner must now satisfy even the president, Democrats also Republicans. In a similar situation, which in 2011 reached almost U.S. into bankruptcy were just a year ago were located.Since the Republicans wanted to reduce Obamacare, the majority Democrats rejected the plan and schedule automatic word came škrtov, which has a parade since the beginning of 2013, that is a fiscal cliff. Even now Republicans propose to cap Medicare and Medicaid and tax structure change U.S. in exchange for possible increase in revenue for the Democrats. Škrtoch O in expenditure is yet And they started to talk and just yesterday called Boehner Obama and Democrats to finally begin to speak škrtoch serious and specific. Republicans are still opposed to all the Bush era tax incentives were abolished at the end of this year. Negotiations will be difficult to market, and joy may be premature.

Today we have other sources of good mood, especially strong earnings decline peripherals, which started with Greece's agreement. By the way she still has an interest flatten somewhat controversial domestic creditors, Greece, no major losses (banks and pension funds are held in a Greek debt to maturity, that is counted only to the team that will receive 100% of the principal amount plus interest. Proposal is to get 25 to 30% of principal, thus Admitted loss. This is actually a haircut.) as they will have foreign creditors. propositional This will be difficult, and also here, the agreed until it is everything, is not understood anything.

Today will be key, what new will agree to buy Greek debt (details to be reported in those days), comments on the fiškálnemu cliff and also the second revision of U.S. GDP, which are also very high expectations (2.8% vs.final estimate of 2.0%). The mood is buoyant and we'll see what turns sharply back on track, or last. Is counted once again that everything will be OK. And experience it they say that such expectations may not always be met.

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker


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