Research (Česká spořitelna)
Markets  |  December 03, 2012 13:28:28

Greece Christmas and parallel


iPoint.cz This text is an expanded version of the column written for People newspaper.

Scramble around to offer further financial assistance to Greece revolves around whether Greece has to reduce debt to 120% of GDP by 2020 and 2022nd It looks like nonsense, but this debate is hiding important change in the thinking of the International Monetary Fund.

Earlier, the IMF accepted that the fiscal multiplier is much higher than previously thought. It does not mean anything other than that deficit reduction has a much more negative impact on the economy than originally expected. IMF concluded that reducing the deficit by one percentage point will reduce economic growth by more than one percentage point. If so, then Greece's debt will not fall, but continue to grow.

IMF begins to put pressure on its partners in the EU, in order to further write-down of Greek debt. This time not only the debt held by private investors, but everybody. In our analysis of the long term, we say that Greece will be able to reduce debt other than its depreciation. Respectively, the cost will be no reduction in his tragic for its economy and its citizens. Therefore, I agree with the position of the IMF. And I think that it will not be the only write-off of debt in the euro area will see.

But away from Greece. With the upcoming Christmas holiday is approaching as well as New Year's resolutions like "lose weight". This is obviously related to its mass by hiring scales in the Christmas season. I was interested because Brian Wansinka study from 2006, which shows that we tend to eat more when we eat with someone else. If we eat with one person, so we eat on average a third more than when eating alone.If eating in a group of about five people, and eat about 75% more. Try to remember this analysis, when you spend time with family and friends. And perhaps prevent further porušenému resolutions.

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