STOX.CZ (Grant Capital)
Markets  |  December 03, 2012 15:45:55

Technical analysis will always be only an analysis

Technical analysis can not be labeled as a reliable tool prediction of publicly traded assets. However, as a description of past developments serve adequately. That can not have more ambition is clearly seen in the graph prime world index S & P 500, which currently produces quite schizophrenic situation depending on the reference period.

If elected, the daily price of candles (lines, line points), the current value is touching the top line downward trend which, according to technical analysis textbooks might have worked as resistance and sent back to the index value býčímu sentiment. This situation is confirmed by the moment probably the most widely used indicator CCI, the curve intersects the top boundary overbought.

In the case of setting the weekly price of candles can describe exactly the opposite situation. The value of the index bounced back from a month ago bottom line stupajícího trend, lasting about four years (after the loss of critical 2007-2008). All CCI Indicator confirms the bullish trend upward movement under zero signal segment.

Both approaches are thus mutually exclusive. Technical analysts, however, are likely to find consensus around the value of 1340 points, which, if punctured by both the pattern to be a strong confirmation of the downtrend.

This very short description does not pretend to provide investment advice, only trying to point out the difference signals of graphs of the same asset. Classical fundamental analysis in his "accuracy" was not far behind, as greater nervousness regarding key issues of U.S. "fiscal cliff" on world indices paradoxically reflects continuous growth.


Mojmír Boček

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