Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  December 04, 2012 15:17:58

TOP forecasters: U.S. economy next year will grow only slightly, the European debt crisis is alleviated


According to Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist of Maria Fiorini Ramirez, and which is best "tipster" macroeconomic biennial survey conducted by Bloomberg, the U.S. economy will grow next year only slightly.
In his opinion, the Fed's policy of zero interest rates in the short term only a limited positive effect on economic development. Far more influential is high indebtedness or deficit of public finances, which will be a serious drag on the economy.

Of the companies themselves participating in the survey, best led analysts at JPMorgan Chase & 4ele with vedouc9m economist Bruce Kasman. Jeh view is similar to Shapiro adding that currently forms the bottom of the U.S. economy and its weakness next year should increase slightly.According Kasman in the next year the global economy will grow by 3%, the European debt crisis partly weakens, if it turns out the intention of the ECB to buy bonds troubled countries, as a working model. China will support next year's global growth.

Survey Bloomberg Markets ranking works with estimates of about 400 respondents over 11 countries and the euro area, in which the monitors or an estimated 13 major indicators. The assessment must cover the U.S. and other countries at least 4.

Out of 71 teams were analysts JPMorgan 13th best estimates for the development of the U.S. economy, 2 for Brazil, 3 for Japan and 6 for Canada.

For the euro area was the best team DekaBank Girozentrale Germany, for China had the most accurate estimates of the Goldman Sachs team, for team Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. For Japan, the best team guessed Tokyo Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.

DekaBank for the euro area in 2013 is estimated stagnation. For the euro area will be crucial development of major structural reforms such as the wider banking supervision and more.

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TOP forecasters: US ekonomika příští rok poroste jen mírně, evropská dluhová krize se zmírní

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