Euro on Thursday also corrected the their previous gains

During Thursday's session the euro against the dollar continued to lose and corrected their previous gains (from local minima of November 13 euro strengthened 3.7% to 1.3127 USD / EUR, the level reached in the middle). During Thursday so the USD / EUR has decreased from 1.3060 to 1.2960.
Today we saw specified data on GDP in the euro area, which confirmed a decline of 0.1% QoQ (in the second quarter, -0.2%). Domestic demand was weak in the third quarter, when the decline experienced government consumption and fixed investment, while household consumption stagnated. Interesting were the German orders for October, which jumped 3.9% mom strong. For better and was revised September result (now down 2.4% mom).These numbers improve slightly grim outlook for the Czech industry, which would still fall in the coming months. In the U.S. it was published only weekly unemployment applications, which fell to 370 thousand. and are already back safely below the 400 thousand., which is historically range between growth and decline in employment.
Yesterday also met the ECB, which, as expected, left its key rate unchanged at 0.75%. The Central Bank has significantly revised the growth outlook downward (from 0.5% to -0.3%). The real economy is expected to remain weak in the first half of next year in Q4, GDP QoQ fall in the EMU. Inflation in the coming years should keep below 2%, the ECB now expects inflation 1.6% in 2013 and 1.4% in the 2014thOn the other hand, the ECB has assessed the risks as balanced, which suggests rate cuts in the near future.
Today will be published in German industrial production for October, which are expected to mom stagnation. Due to yesterday published a very good German orders, however, are at significant risk towards positive surprise. Markets, however, will wait for a report from the American labor market. In November they will act against each other two factors, positive calendar effect and against the negative impact of Hurricane Sandy. Our colleagues expect SG 122 thousand. new jobs, markets are more pessimistic in their expectations (85 thousand).. The unemployment rate should then stagnate in November at 7.9%.Interesting is also the result of the December consumer sentiment University of Michigan, where our colleagues are optimistic, though they expect de facto stagnation. Markets expect a slight decrease in contrast to 82.0 points.

Author: Jiri Skop

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