Comments to foreign trade - seasonally adjusted all the gloss disappears, the trend will continue
Interesting results offers the October foreign trade statistics. The trade balance reached a record surplus of CZK 33.0 billion and is thus the second highest surplus in the history of the Czech Republic.It is already possible to say that the trade surplus this year most likely will exceed 300 billion crowns.
At first glance, a great growth of exports and imports by 7.5% and 8.2% degrades the fact that this October was significantly larger number of working days than last year. Seasonally adjusted data then offers an undistorted image - both exports and imports year on year for the first time since November 2009 declined.
According to figures released today CSO on foreign trade in October year on year at current prices, exports rose by 7.5% and imports by 8.2%. The trade balance showed a surplus of CZK 33 billion, which was up only by CZK 0.8 billion higher.
The trade balance continues to be very high surpluses and even published today in terms of numbers do not export much to celebrate.On the other hand, a surplus of 33 billion crowns is the second highest this year. For a total of positive numbers is also a need to see the fact that, compared with the previous year had this October for 3 days more. This is surely the performance of import and export reflected.
The mom already observed after adjustment for exports decrease by 2.4%. Negative news is that for the further slowdown in export markets is not only already problematic countries of southern Europe, but also one for Czech exporters crucial German market.
Not in the next two months of 2012 we do not expect the trend were to turn and we can expect more further weakening export growth. Even though we expect that the trade surplus swings over the 300 billion. We would consider it a success achieve an overall surplus of 320 billion.
George F. Grund
Chairman of the Association of Exporters
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