Currencies  |  December 07, 2012 11:00:08

Daily commentary on the evolution of the currency pair EUR / USD


ECB President Mario Draghi yesterday at a press conference announcing that the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains the current interest rate at a record low 0.75 percent.
But this time, investors focused their attention more on what the economic outlook of the common monetary union countries ECB will bring.
The European Central Bank predicts slowdown in the economy by 0.5 percent this year, which is worsening by 0.4 percent from the September forecast. The ECB also changed the outlook for 2013, when the now-expected growth predicts development ranging from 0.9 percent decline after 0.3 percent growth.The Bank and its prediction follows the European Commission, which also in November humiliated Eurozone economic outlook for next year.
The ECB has also changed the inflation forecast for next year, from the original 1.9 percent to 1.6 percent.
Draghi also admitted that the bank's management was the introduction of negative interest rates in an effort to force banks to accumulate money, but lent them to support the economy.
European Central Bank failed to convince investors about the progress in the fight against the debt crisis and steadily worsening predictions indicate that the ECB does not have the situation completely under control.
Euro after the publication of negative economic growth outlook for next year has weakened. The common currency has responded sharp sell-off and reached the 1.2950-month low against the dollar.


In America, was published last week with the number of applications for unemployment benefits. The total number of applications dropped by 25,000 to 370 000th We got to the numbers comparable to the situation before the storm Sandy.
According to experts, a decrease in applications for aid came too late to influence today's NFP report (monthly change in jobs outside of agriculture), where it was expected to decline jobs in November. The most important report of the U.S. economy is unlikely to bring positive news. Expected to grow by only 93,000 instead of the October 171 000th
November NFP report is likely to be worst in the last five months, thanks to Sandy storm, which destroyed most densely populated east coast.
The unemployment rate, which will be published together with the NFP reports are expected unchanged ie 7.9 percent.
In addition, the U.S. fight rages on fiscal cliff. Republicans still can not find a common note with Democrats, which today together with a negative NFP reports could weaken the dollar.

Today you have to be careful especially already mentioned U.S. data announced at 14:30. First Fridays of the month are prone to big movements, so you must be in the afternoon than attentive.
Even before the publication of a series of macro data from the U.S. at 11:00 am We expect the ECB chief speech - Mario Draghi - the banking conference in Budapest. That, as we know from experience, it can also wiggle the price of the euro.
On the chart we can see that despite the ignorance of the impact of fundamentals could successfully trade yesterday. First came a long bearish candle price back below trend line and stopped almost exactly at support 1.3000. After such candles mostly clear trend continues inertia.The second bearish candle has come to the Fibonacci level 38.2 and there consolidated. During the Asian session the market suggested further development. Eurodollars still did not create a lower low, so it is possible that today will continue to grow and corrects yesterday's losses. Forfeited if the price is below the Fibonacci level 50, so I thought it was a signal for a change in the medium-term sales trend.

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