Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  December 10, 2012 08:21:00

Mixed signals for the further development of the USD / EUR

Finally last week brought a number of macroeconomic data from the United States and Europe. Figure was the most-watched report from the U.S. labor market, which significantly exceeded market expectations, when the economy created 146 thousand. new jobs and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since December 2008. However, data for September and October were revised down. Disappointment was deep slump in consumer confidence, which may be related primarily to the continuing dispute over the softening effects of ending restrictive measures at the end of this year. In fact, if they change there and started to apply in such form as they are approved by law, would represent a strong economy for the fiscal brakes, which could be reflected in a marked economic slowdown.From the United States, so in this regard during the week followed two major events - the retail sales and meeting U.S. central bank. Mainly from the Fed expects replacement surgery ended Twist (selling short-term government bonds and buying long-term) something new. Speculation is all about outright purchases of government bonds in at least the same volume of 45 billion USD. In addition, it introduces an updated forecast, which will probably be revised downwards.

In Europe, the most interesting indicators are leading PMI indices or German ZEW index. Numbers should be slightly better compared to the previous month. If expectations are fulfilled or exceed the published data, they could reduce speculation on further reduction of interest rates by the ECB after Thursday's meeting went with it, as the central bank loweredits macroeconomic forecast and the Board discussed the possibility of lower rates.

Friday was also completed offer to buy Greek government bonds. According to initial information Greece achieved its stated objective redemption in the amount of EUR 30 billion, which would reduce its total debt by 20 billion, or 10% of GDP. This is obviously good news and Hellenic country will help to facilitate the operation of the planned amount of debt reaching 124% of GDP in 2020, but they are certainly far from public finance sustainability and the need to continue to consolidate.

At the end of the week (Thursday and Friday) will be a meeting of the European Council on a common banking supervision. Interviews will be very difficult and the expectation that politicians will move up in the negotiations, are low.The main theme is primarily the role of the European Central Bank. While the ECB itself, France and the European Commission wants the European single monitoring mechanism covering all banks, Germany wants to retain oversight of small banks to national authorities. Thus for example, conditional on their support for the Czech Republic. At the same time the question remains, when the ESM bailout fund will be able to recapitalize troubled banks. According to the Vice President of the ECB will direct recapitalization as possible in 2014.

Rate USD / EUR in the second half of last week, rebounded from his 7týdenního peak levels around 1.31 and dropped to the 1.29 threshold. During this week plead for USD / EUR signals rather mixed, the rate should fluctuate in a wider band without a clearer trend.

Author: Miroslav Frayer

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