Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Zemědělství  |  December 10, 2012 09:27:00

The number of unemployed again swung over half a million


The unemployment rate climbed to the end of November, in line with our expectations to 8.7% from 8.5% in October. Growth has been so pronounced than amounted market expectations (consensus was at 8.6%). The number of people out of work so during the month increased by nearly 12,000 to nearly 508,500. For the first time since March, the number of unemployed had over half a million.

The labor market situation is gradually deteriorating since the spring months. The main reason is the unfavorable macroeconomic situation - Czech economy since the beginning of this year in recession. The declining capacity utilization is reflected in lower labor requirements in the industry, the construction industry is facing as long-term problems, retail and other sectors of the services suffer from weak domestic demand. Ultimately, this means that the economy does not create jobs.Labour offices are at the end of November were registered almost 39,000. Compared to October, but it was by almost 2,000 less.

Seasonality also plays a role. Of course, for fewer jobs November is also the negative seasonality, although with the onset of winter disappear especially in agriculture and construction. And this factor will burden the labor market until the spring months.

Since October began the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs to publish the unemployment rate according to the new methodology. Current registered unemployment rate, which consisted in the number of job seekers in relation to the economically active population, it will be an indicator of the proportion of unemployed persons to the total population aged 15-64 years. Since the new year it will publish MLSA unemployment only by this new methodology.In late November the newly calculated rate of unemployment was 6.8% after 6.7% in October.

Unfavorable macroeconomic situation should be reflected in a further increase in unemployment. End of the year is traditionally marked by the disappearance of seasonal jobs. The rise in the unemployment rate will end the year marked. During December, the unemployment rate swings over 9%, our forecast is 9.3%. At the end of last year, while it was 8.6%. During the year 2013 will be a gradual worsening trend continues and at the end may be the unemployment rate (according to the current methodology) approximate value of 10%.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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