Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  December 10, 2012 10:29:32

Comments on the development of unemployment - the main wave of layoffs will come in early 2013


iPoint.cz The optimistic view is not the whole of next year. Massive release is most likely to confess, but a slight rise in unemployment coupled with the continuing decline in real wages and the low number of vacancies is a realistic figure.

The registered unemployment rate rose in November to 8.7%. The total number of job seekers compared to October increased by 2.4% to 508,498 persons. The rise in unemployment can be explained primarily termination of seasonal work, but made ??increasingly begins to leak in other segments of the economy. The main wave of dismissal, however, is yet to come early next year.One of the most pressing problems in the labor market remains weak job creation. In November, authorities reported 38,806 job vacancies, which is compared with October, a decrease of 4.7%. The vacancy, which now accounts for more than 13 candidates.

The decline in the economic performance of the Czech Republic in the labor market still not fully realized and it can be expected that in the coming months, unemployment will grow. The optimistic view is not the whole of next year. Massive release is most likely to confess, but a slight rise in unemployment coupled with the continuing decline in real wages and the low number of vacancies is a realistic figure.And job creation is one of the key problems in the labor market, when demand is basically just for specialists from IT. On the other hand, for low-skilled workers is becoming harder to find a job.

 

Miroslav Novak
Analyst AKCENTA CZ '


iPoint.czThe unemployment rate last month rose from 8.5 to 8.7 percent, and last year reached 8.0 percent. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rises already 12 months and in November reached the limits 9.0 percent. The share of the unemployed population, the newly introduced indicator, is 6.8 percent. Number of registered job seekers exceeded half a million and reached 508 thousand. The number of vacancies fell to 38.8 thousand., One vacancy now accounts for 13.1 candidate.

Data from the labor market brought no surprises. In addition to seasonal influences toll on the numbers of unemployed increasingly recession. At the same time it decreases the number of vacancies and job search success. Last November, it managed 30.6 thousand. people, this year only 16.2 thousand. people.

Unemployment after disregarding seasonally reaches its highest level since January last year. In the next few months will likely continue to increase as the recession of the Czech economy is still not in sight. This year the average unemployment rate is likely to be 8.6 percent next year, according to my estimate rises to 9.1 percent. Newly used indicator of the share of the unemployed in the population is expected to reach an average of 7.2 percent. The upturn in the labor market nesjpíše comes up in 2014.  

David Marek, Patria Finance

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