Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  December 10, 2012 15:46:00

Deflationary pressures are increasing, the crown weakens

The difference between the most expensive and cheapest trade with the euro on the interbank market today, featured just 12 cents. Rate CZK / EUR opened in a new week near the border 25.20 during the day, then the crown against the common currency has lost a few cents.

On the macroeconomic indicators crown almost never respond. The biggest surprise was taken care inflation rate. Consumer prices in November fell by 0.2%, which is dramatically reduced and annual growth to 2.7% from 3.1% in October. The published structure was confirmed that demand pressures in the economy there. Adjusted inflation even mom and declined by 0.1%. The November inflation and a 0.3 percentage point below the CNB forecast so that it can continue to be practiced very loose monetary policy and offset the negative impact of fiscal tightening on the domestic economy.Conversely, if deflationary pressures continue to intensify, we expect the central bank tried to further loosen monetary policy through the exchange rate channel. And subsequent CNB comments in response to the published data (it said in a statement that the data shows inflation inflationary economy) earned the reaction rate, which depreciated sharply by five cents.

Industry and construction confirmed the weakness of the domestic economy. Industrial production growth was due to a higher number of working days in October, but if the data adjusted for this effect, the industry recorded a decline of 3.3%. Construction then fell by 4.3% y / y, adjusted for calendar effects, then even by 8.0%. This has a negative impact on the development of the labor market where firms care about future developments lead to redundancies.Pushed the unemployment rate in November rose to only 8.7% negative impact of seasonal factors.

Swap and bond curve is now shifted slightly downward. The macroeconomic data did not react significantly.

Author: Miroslav Frayer

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