Cyrrus (Cyrrus)
Markets  |  December 11, 2012 10:00:42, updated

Joint Stock breakfast 12.11 - FOMC meeting, Twist, Cliff, Chinese, Greek buyback, macro

Overview of the main events for Tuesday, the 11th December 2012




Fed starts meeting


Slightly worse Chinese macro


Today ends the Greek buyback





Upcoming Events

11:00 Germany ZEW
EZ ZEW 11:00
10:30 Spain vouchers


Fiscal cliff:

  • Obama extended the offer to cooperate with the Republicans over the budget
  • Yesterday he said after a meeting with the head of the Republicans in the conciliar
  • Almost all still count on the fact that an agreement will be
  • Even markets that are largely credited
  • The current price of the S & P implies 1.5% discount to its historical average
  • From our perspective, the discount should be higher (5-10%), but I can imagine that risk perception fiscal cliff is quite different for each

Fed meeting:

  • Today begins 2-day Fed meeting
  • Tomorrow publish estimates of economic growth, estimates of inflation and interest rates

Operation Twist:

  • At the end of the program shift ends of each maturity of the debt
  • You probably will notice that instead 45mld.USD month in this program, this volume moves to QE3 until at least Q1 2014
  • The estimated 48 out of 49 economists
  • He would then spread from the current 40 billion linked to mortgage monthly by 45 billion monthly purchase of government bonds
  • It would be better because: Operation Twist does not increase the balance, while QE3 actually pumping money into the economy

Implication to the purchasing power of the population:

  • QE3 yet successfully reduces mortgage rates
  • In addition, increases confidence and activity in the real estate market
  • Real estate prices are rising and because of this, more and more owners can refinance your mortgage for the currently cheaper conditions
  • It actually increases their income



  • New loans to banks slightly lagged behind estimates (523 billion yuan vs. exp. 550 billion)
  • This negatively affected mainly developers



  • Eurozone finance ministers convened for an extraordinary conference call today for Greece (AFP)
  • Likely to be dealt buyback results
  • Offer ends today at 13:00 (it was extended by a day and a half)

EU Summit:

  • Will be held on the 13th and 14 December
  • The program is not what it should agitate markets significantly
  • Greece is resolved on time and bailout of Spain is not yet on the agenda
  • The main topic will be the negotiation of a single European banking supervision



  • Results for 4Q FY
  • Cancels dividend for the previous fiscal year due to depreciation of EUR 3.6 billion Steel America
  • Decreased sales and new orders


  • JPMorgan reduces recommendations for shares of Deutsche Post on the "neutral"
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Akciová snídaně 11.12. - zasedání FOMC, Twist, Cliff, Čína, řecký buyback, makro

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