Research (Investicniweb.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  December 11, 2012 19:08:58

Black scenario: Morgan Stanley warns of recession



The global economy is caught in the trap of slow growth. Morgan Stanley warns that if politicians begin to act very quickly, it could be worse.

Economic team Morgan Stanley predicts next year the world economy recession. On the basis of the pessimistic scenario, GDP could fall by 2%. In its report, the Bank notes that many depend on the agility of governments and central banks.

According to the worst case scenario, the U.S. fiscal cliff irresistible. It should cause a decline in U.S. GDP in the first three quarters of 2013. The pessimistic scenario also expects that the ECB will not succeed in Europe with the reduction of interest rates and there is a delay in the bond purchase program (OMT).

Morgan Stanley recommends that investors still to remain vigilant. If it happened, it would be plausible and political response determined in growth is not reflected positively. ** Investors should be prepared to be able, if necessary, quickly "switch" between the two scenarios. The most optimistic scenario predicts GDP growth of 4% in 2013 compared with around 3.1% this year.

The pessimistic outlook is not a bank Morgan Stanley alone, what do you think about the investment in 2013 Nouriel Roubini?


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Read also:

December 29, 2012Ten Black Swans for 2013 from DB and Morgan Stanley Research (Investicniweb.cz)
September 19, 2012Wall Street is waiting until the end of downhill, warns Morgan Stanley Research (Investicniweb.cz)

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