Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Commodities  |  December 14, 2012 15:23:00

Time for direct intervention by the CNB has not come yet

Domestic currency during this week against the euro has seen only marginal changes when the CZK / EUR rate most of the time was slightly above the 25.20 level. Domestic data (industry, inflation, unemployment and current account) and other board members comment on anything rather quiet trading unchanged. The regional currencies then you better off only the Polish zloty, the Hungarian forint week ends more or less where it started.
The most interesting events on the domestic scene will undoubtedly be Wednesday's meeting of the CNB. At the November meeting of the Czech National Bank reduced its key rate to "technical zero" and is ready to keep rates at record low levels until it appears significant inflationary pressures.We assume that the central bank will leave rates unchanged until the end of 2014. CNB previously announced, it will not reduce rates into negative territory and instead will prefer instruments that affect the exchange rate. Attention markets will focus on any comments specifically to the CZK / EUR, which could push the crown to weaker levels. Just because this month released data from the domestic economy sounded its inflationary direction (GDP, inflation, wages), which indicates the need for the increased monetary stimulus. The direct foreign exchange interventions, however, is not yet time, as mentioned by some board members. For their implementation will be monitored deflationary risks, the attention it deserves inflationary expectations of corporations and financial markets. But for now, the threat of deflation, these indicators do not.
Monday will be published and prices in the industry. Industrial producer prices in November should increase by 0.2% m / m Oil prices would have time to act neutrally, but upwards due to increased agricultural prices (higher prices in the food industry) and a weaker koruna against the euro. Annual growth in producer prices should fall from 1.9% in October to 1.7% in November.

Author: Jiri Skop

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