Markets  |  December 18, 2012 13:35:43

U.S. Reef - Time to Mina, suggestions pribúdajú Yesterday's European trading was not further interesting regarding publication or motion of the markets. Euro has long traded in such close relation Gaza, shares traded with small changes. American trade was considerably more interesting, especially when the new administration came from discussions about fiškálnom reef. There are obviously two things, fiscal cliff is nowadays Favourites events, and Congress begin to accrue over time ubúdajúcim proposals and compromises. This sent U.S. stocks at 2-month highs. What has actually happened?

Current negotiations on resolving the crisis in the U.S. debt-relate mainly škrtov growth of taxes and spending in the American budget. Difference between the debt crisis in the U.S. and EU is that Washington, unlike Brussels can not enjoy the luxury of planning consolidations in 2020, nor erect budget on the water and pretend that everything is in order. measures must be specific, transformed to valid laws and literally a few days. Time is running out and the economy is already one foot above the deep area that follows at the end of the cliff. Yesterday had elapsed optimal time, and when it was agreed framework legislation, the end of all things would be in a room slim. Disaster to happen, but slack is gone. Never mind, the other significant dates will be on Friday, 21 December.Not the end of the world, will go to the last session of Congress before the holidays. Republicans say that the negotiations were not stopping until your solution. Some skeptical voices say that Congress will go to work even on Christmas day and into the evening will be attempt to find a solution. 25th December is a holiday, then Congress will have 7 days to the end of the year to find a solution. If not found, he shall come into force debt ceiling at $ 16.4 trillion., Which means that the Treasury will have to take emergency measures to avert bankruptcy. Already 1.1.2013 vypršia tax breaks from the days of Bush's younger, which were extended in 2010 súčasným President Obama. The average American household will pay about $ 1,600 a year in taxes more. An expiration Obama's tax relief in income tax will increase the annual tax expenditure for households by a further $ 700At this time, begin to pay the new taxes that have foster new regulation and health care reform, known under the nickname of Obamacare. This will be an 0.9% increase in income taxes for people zarábajúce over 200 thousand. year and 3.8% tax capital gains of 200 thousand. year. This will be valid regardless of the outcome of negotiations on fiškálnom reef. Second January will come into force automatic cuts in a volume of 1.2 trillion. term, in 10 years, and those will not be modified or displaced. Third January, the first time the new Congress meet forthwith, from 7 to 11 January will not sit, becoming to 14 January. In February, the White House should present the budget and begin to pay either the original cuts, negotiated or suggestions on these days. If the economy downgrade fiscal reef, there is a further reduction of the U.S. credit rating.

Time is therefore little big challenges. So What happened last night? This is already the second concession after the White House itself. We increase the tax revenue is about $ 1.2 trillion. (Over the course of 10 years) vs. Last offer from Democrats $ 1.4 trillion. and completely previously scheduled $ 1.6 trillion. and, thanks to a higher threshold that defines "rich" who have to be taxed more. Initially it should have been at $ 250 thousand. income year, the Democrats are now given way to $ 400 thousand., I mean bigger taxes will have less of the citizens. Republicans initially requested that higher taxes just over $ 1 million a year. Finally began to speak also about changing the methodology, which will be measured indexation of social transfers. Boehner from Republicans was expressed that this is step in the right direction, but it is still not the equilibrium proposal. Škrtoch talked about in a volume of only $ 930 billion, but in this calculation or zarátané úrokoch savings of $ 290 billion, Which is also counted as savings. Obama agreed with the highest tax rate on dividends and capital gains at the rate of 20%, which, however, with an increase in taxes in Obamacare nourishment (valid from January) reaches 23.8%.

The council are Republicans watched the reaction to the conservative wing, which they watched with dismay to any increases in taxes (just wanted to disturb exceptions and Holes in the laws) and mentioned in a possible increase in the ceiling were already dlhového literally boggled. Conservatives would like best same is admitted raising tax revenues in exchange for a greater reduction in government spending. So currently we have around 50-50 vs. cuts. tax, if it is to behold škrtov calculated savings úrokoch.

For today's events were observed mainly British inflation data (see also here decelerating inflation) and the Spanish and Greek auction that fared well. Spaniel plan again surpass emissions and yields were lower than the last time, it rewarded the EUR growth. Peripheral bond yields are already at levels again from under the Italian government crisis where the current silence before budget approval, after which it was originally Monti wanted to announce his resignation. That's what he wants to do vie currently only they (not expressing sa) and is soon on this subject shall make a public speech. Therefore, the expectations of the market are starting to drag on zajtrajší IFO survey in Germany, štvrtkové BoJ meeting (the first after the elections) and of course talks about fiškálnom reef.

The American promotions already see the reaction to yesterday's good governance, we are currently far from the first resistance of 1440, The growth outlook and serve as a suport 50MA level at the 1414th

Author: Thomas Swimmer | TRIM Broker, as | Trading on exchanges TRIM Broker

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