Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Markets  |  December 18, 2012 14:35:15

Equity markets this year drove politicians, the year 2013 will be geopolitical threats

This year's events on the stock market largely controlled the politicians and their ability to manage or resolve problems such as have been or still are the European debt crisis, the threat of disintegration of the euro zone and uncertainty over U.S. fiscal cliff. Analysts will be one of the determining factors in the next year, a geopolitical developments and the resulting risks.

Explosive areas in this direction will be to the Middle East, where the U.S. and Israel sinks ever closer to a direct confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program. Is also a potentially dangerous situation in Syria, which could be a detonator major international problems, which is filled with oil in very dangerous. It is estimated that the situation will be very serious when about half of the year not advance in mutual negotiations forward.In the case of armed conflict will grow rapidly and the price of oil is roughly about 20-25 USD per barrel. It is estimated that at the current price counted the potential risk to the amount of about 10-15 USD. The chances of armed conflict resolution are estimated at 20-30%.

Great importance will be the further development of tensions between China and Japan. Their mutual conflict over claims of ownership of islands in the South China Sea have a significant negative impact on trade between the two economies, which could have far-reaching impact. The Chinese and the Japanese economy is the second and the third largest in the world with a mutual balance of trade at 340 mld.USD

The average yield of all kinds of bonds this year worldwide reach some 5.8%, which is similar to that in 2011 and it is still the most since 2002.

American index S & P 500 this year, including reinvestment of dividends earned about 16% over the last decade, long-term average at 3.5%.

Chicago's index of financial market volatility known as the VIX also declined this year by 30% to about 16.3 points on average since the foundation in 1990 the index at 20.45 points.

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Akciové trhy letos řídili politici, rok 2013 bude patřit geopolitickým hrozbám

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