Research (Conseq)
Markets  |  December 20, 2012 13:57:29

The inflation rate will fall too, noting that domestic bonds


iPoint.cz Surprisingly strong year slowdown in inflation was due to the fact that in November 2011, the prices of which are now compared, there was a significant price growth. A year ago, is already in advance traders began to raise their prices in January with a view to increasing the rate of value added tax. This year so far due to weak domestic demand and the uncertainty whether any higher VAT passes Parliament, dare. Contributed significantly reducing the cost of mobile operators who lure customers to lower prices in the action discounts and cheaper prices of package holidays and petrol. By contrast, food prices rose.

It remains the domestic economy without demand pressures on prices - household consumption so far this year is decreasing (-2.4% yoy in the third quarter). Caution households when spending is caused real wages decline (-1.8% yoy in the third quarter), slightly increasing unemployment and overall concerns about further developments.

The next year, in our opinion, CPI inflation should fall below the target of the Czech National Bank, which is 2%. At the beginning of the year will rise in prices fueled mainly by administrative measures (taxes, regulated prices), later growing demand. Economic activity would mean next year should swing back to the plus and further accelerate in 2014. This will have a positive impact on household consumption. Upside would finally acted also any foreign intervention that CNB is now mentioned as another monetary policy instrument.

Higher inflation and greater economic activity in the next year will push the growth of domestic government bond yields, especially those with longer maturities. This will have a negative impact on their prices.

 

 

David Kufa,

Investment Manager

Conseq Investment Management, Inc.

Was this article: 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0




Míra inflace už příliš klesat nebude, domácí dluhopisy to poznamená

Diskuze a názory

Na dané téma nejsou žádné názory.


Zobrazit sloupec 
Moner | ISIN database | Weather forecast
Česká verze
Kurzy.cz - Akcie cz, kurzy měn, forex, zlato.
Favorite: Prague Stock Exchange Czech crown Czech economy Commodities Gold Trademarks Prague Weather

Copyright © 2000 - 2018

Kurzy.cz, spol. s r.o., AliaWeb, spol. s r.o.,

ISSN 1801-8688