World markets  |  December 20, 2012 14:36:22

Hungary: The calm before the storm? / BIG EXPERT - foreign markets: a week from 14 12th 2,012


Hungarian yields attacking threshold of 6% and are at the lowest levels in the last seven years. Although Hungary in balancing external imbalances has come a very long way and lower yields deserves, 2013 ahead but involve many risks.

First, removal of financial leverage (foreign debt) in private and especially in the public sector is far from over. Although the current account settled, large foreign debt Hungarians still remains on the neck. Regarding public debt, Budapest is gradually reducing the proportion of foreign currency debt. The next year, but expect the treasury large euro debt repayments. Their high concentration may, without an agreement with the IMF to significantly reduce foreign exchange reserves Hungarian central bank.They moreover have their highs of around 40 billion euros markedly decreased and at this moment is approaching two-year lows.

The decline in reserves below 30 billion euros in the markets may not be perceived as safe, especially if the Hungarian government growing dependence on foreign creditors. At the moment, foreign creditors hold almost half of Hungarian debt. Slightly worse forecast for global markets so easily can get Hungarian bond market on the defensive and push the government to deal with the IMF. This will be the forthcoming elections at the beginning of 2014 more and more complex. Bottom, line, Hungarian 6% of the revenue in the light of the super-low yields secure markets look attractive. But certainly not without risk.

Jan Bures, ERA PSB

Expert opinions on the future development in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech capital market (PX) in the next month and a half, a week from 17 12th 2012th


Experts estimate for the period of one month

Pointer
Hodn.
14th 12th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 008,02
1 032,80
1,040
^ 2.46
1 010 - 1 050
5
0
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 135,01
13 332,60
13383
^ 1.50
13080 - 13500
4
1
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 971,33
3 056,80
3,060
^ 2.88
3020 - 3080
5
0
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 921,80
5 970,60
5,950
^ 0.82
5850 - 6100
4
1
DAX (Germany)
7 596,47
7 659,00
7,650
^ 0.82
7550 - 7750
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
9 737,56
10 005,80
10100
^ 2.76
9840 - 10139
5
0


Experts estimate for the period of 6 months

Pointer
Hodn.
14th 12th
Diameter
Median
Change
in%
Interval
Growth
Decrease
PX
1 008,02
1 049,00
1,050
^ 4.07
970 - 1 100
4
1
Dow Jones (U.S.)
13 135,01
13 496,20
13600
^ 2.75
13200 - 13781
5
0
NASDAQ (U.S.)
2 971,33
3 197,00
3,100
^7.60
3 100 - 3520
5
0
FTSE 100 (UK)
5 921,80
6 038,40
6,100
^ 1.97
5790 - 6202
3
2
DAX (Germany)
7 596,47
7 733,00
7,800
^ 1.80
7350 - 7965
4
1
Nikkei 225 (JPN)
9 737,56
10 128,00
10200
^ 4.01
9850 - 10440
5
0

Rating this week performed:

  • Menčík Thomas, George Šimara - CYRRUS
  • Libor Bucek, Jan Mach, Milan Nedbálek - FINANCE Zlín
  • Patrick Hudec - Generali PPF Asset Management, a fund manager společnost
  • Karel Handbag, Miroslav Hlavoň - CAPITAL GRANT
  • Jaroslav Brychta - X-Trade Brokers

The tables contain a summary of the estimates of experts in the list. The column "Actual value" represents the value of the monitored indices (Friday's closing value), from which experts in their estimates came out. With this value, the estimates of experts after a period of one to six months, compared to evaluate success. "Median" is a number that is in the middle the size of a structured set of estimates and "Interval Estimates" lists the minimum and maximum estimate file. Columns "Increase / Decrease" indicate the number of experts assume that the index of the period under consideration, given the current value rises or falls.
Note: Estimates are in the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one month and a half year. The fact, however, may substantially differ from the estimates of experts. Experts even Kurzy.czassume no responsibility for these differences.

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