Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Interest rates  |  December 31, 2012 14:42:00

Eventually crown this year with a slight gain for the zloty and the forint, however, significantly lagged


Crown in the last days of December polepšovala slightly against the euro. While in the middle of the month attacked another level course 25.30 CZK / EUR, at the very end of the year, already under pressure given the level of 25.10. The development reflected thus reduce uncertainty in global markets in recent weeks and the related decline in risk aversion.

This year's final trading day on the global foreign exchange and Central European markets, from the perspective of foreign exchange trading and uninteresting. The vast majority of traders enjoyed the holidays, liquidity and interest of players in the market for trading were minimal. This was reflected in the exchange rate. New Year's Eve session launched by the Czech koruna to 25.10 CZK / EUR to course throughout the morning without any significant price fluctuations in his band just six cents around 25.10 CZK / EUR.The afternoon was a slight weakness towards 25.17 CZK / EUR. Similarly, it was quiet today as trading on the Polish zloty, Hungarian forint just you against the euro by about half a percent offend.

No response has remained the market early publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the CNB Bank Board. From it emerged that to leave interest rates unchanged voted all seven central bankers. The current risk assessment is assessed as slightly downside. It was reiterated that, if necessary, will be released through the monetary policy rate, ie weaker domestic currency. The market ignored the publication November monetary survey. He confirmed the deteriorating macroeconomic picture when the annual growth dynamics of money supply and credit activities reduce their tempo.

In the annual review of the year 2012, the koruna against the euro has improved by almost one and a half percent. Czech currency so significantly lagged behind its regional counterparts. While the Hungarian forint improved by almost seven percent, the Polish zloty profits exceeded more than eight and a half percent. Czech currency paid for the recession of the domestic economy and the gradual easing of monetary policy. Key rate is gradually came down to essentially zero (0.05%). Moreover, the exchange rate was at the end of monetary policy instrument. At zero interest rates, you might need to loosen monetary conditions essentially only the weaker domestic currency. On the contrary, the Polish zloty to support the growing economy and an attractive interest rate, the Hungarian forint through recession and macroeconomic problems benefited from high interest rates.

Compared to the equilibrium exchange rate should be in 2013 Czech koruna weaker. Throughout the first half of the year, the Czech economy will teeter on the edge of recession from the perspective of the dynamics will therefore be below potential growth trajectories. For amplification of deflationary pressures, then there is a real danger that the central bank as a monetary policy tool will use the exchange rate. Some improvement is expected in the second half of the year, if you count the fact that the Czech economy should leave recessionary zone, which would be reflected in stronger domestic currency.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

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