Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  January 02, 2013 07:23:00

Euro finally in 2012 with a profit

Rate of the euro against the dollar in the last decade of December stabilized between 1.3150 to 1.3300 USD / EUR, the strongest level since spring months. Festive trading and low activity in the market is reflected in the unattractive exchange rate developments. And nothing has changed on New Year's Eve or trading, when the rate stabilized just below 1.3200 USD / EUR. No response was done market publication December Fed index of industrial activity from around Dallas.

In a year-long evaluation, the euro against the dollar eventually straighten up, by about two percent. The first half of 2012, however, did not suggest anything like that. On the contrary, the common European currency quickly fell almost to the level of 1.2000 USD / EUR in mid-July. Due to the recent escalation of the European debt crisis, and in particular fears of its extension to the type of systemically important countries Spain.Meanwhile, the European economy go hand in hand with significant fiscal cuts received into recession, resulting in problematic countries debt situation even worse. Since August, the situation improved in the foreign exchange market and the end of the euro against the dollar level of $ 1.3300 ram / EUR. World central bank action to support the economy and shifts in solution to the debt crisis in Europe has led to a reduction in uncertainty and aversion of investors, which resulted in the promotion of a common European currency.

Market consensus sees 2013 slightly more optimistic on the U.S. dollar. While the end of the first quarter, the average expected rate of 1.28 USD / EUR for the final quarter of this year it is 1.27 USD / EUR (source Bloomberg). Expectations of our group SG are a little more aggressive. In annual term we expect the euro to the dollar to 1.19 USD / EUR.Nothing does not change the fact that while the European economy is in recession, and even throughout the first half of 2013 with her will to fight, the U.S. economy was growing and growing (risk scenario is a collapse of the "fiscal cliff" in the event that no agreement is reached on political scene and will enter into force significant fiscal tightening, according to recent information, however, is all in a good way).

Author: Jan Vejmělek

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