Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
Currencies  |  January 03, 2013 07:30:00

Agreement on "fiscal cliff" has helped the euro. For how long?

The common European currency launched this year against the dollar successfully. During the Asian session he scored one cent, and the price has risen from about $ 1.32 / EUR 1.33 USD / EUR. Euro reacted positively to the American political agreement between Republicans and Democrats, and thus fall out of "fiscal cliff." Version approved by both chambers of Congress, but does not provide a definitive solution. In fact, it is only taking the time out to force spending cuts for two months. The central point is the final confirmation of tax relief for the middle class and tax increases highest income group.

Profits, however, the common European currency long lagged. During the morning, the euro began its night shift umazávat profits slightly to 1.3260 USD / EUR. During today's Asian session, the course got even below 1.3150 USD / EUR.Entrants to the market mood spoiled PMI activity indicators from the industrial sector from different European countries and for the euro area as a whole. In December, the drop zone indicators deeper into contraction. The recession in the euro area is continuing. On the contrary, the U.S. ISM in December returned to growth territory.

Today brings some interesting economic indicators that should have sounded in the direction of market optimism, encouragement, which would be a common European currency benefit. While the German economy is slowing, the situation on the labor market (yet) does not dramatically worsen and the December statistics should confirm this fact. Although, the number of unemployed Germans increased by about 10,000, the unemployment rate should hold at low 6.9%.The November money supply (M3) should accelerate the pace of its growth from October's 3.1% y / y to 3.5% y / y in November (according to Bloomberg consensus). Afternoon agency ADP estimate on the number of new jobs in the private sector as well as regular weekly statistics on the number of new applicants for unemployment benefits should refer to at least stabilize the situation in the U.S. labor market.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

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