Vladimír Urbánek (Kurzy.cz)
Macroeconomics  |  January 03, 2013 12:32:19

China's GDP will grow this year by 8.1%, the growth of debt risk


According to a survey by Bloomberg China's GDP will grow this year by about 8.1% compared to 7.7% in 2012. The main risk would be the growing indebtedness of the country as a whole as well as its inhabitants. Experts warn that if the Chinese government will try to nurture economic growth despite the growth of debt, it could bring in the future, the most populous country in the world in big trouble.

Total debt of government, businesses and consumers in 2012 increased by 15% to a total of 206% of total GDP. In 2003, debt levels reached 150% of GDP.
Corporate debt in 2012 grew to 15 years maximum at 122% of GDP as against 108% in the 2011th

High risk for significant growth in the Chinese economy, non-bank lending and increase in activity "shadow banks".The volume of non-bank loans from trust companies in 2012 rose five-fold year on year to 1.04 trillion yuan. According to the IMF, while the vast majority of loans granted to entities which did not reach the regular bank loans.
The volume of assets under management trusts grew tenfold since 2007 and the first nine months of 2012 grew by 54% year on year to a total of 6.3 trillion yuan. The volume of loans provided by them represents about one quarter of all non-bank loans and the volume corresponds to about 45% of total GDP

The estimated rate of bad loans in the banking system, regular moves to 12%, which could clear up to 7.5 trillion yuan (1.2 trillion dollars) from the system.
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