Investiční bankovnictví (Komerční banka)
World markets  |  January 04, 2013 15:40:00

Crown introduction of the new year did not work too


Czech crown during the first week of January working very successful. Against the euro has lost nearly one percent. While at the beginning of Wednesday's session, the course found still around level 25.10 CZK / EUR, on Friday afternoon, got a course in sight at 25.40 CZK / EUR. The most successful was the currency of the region in the past week, the Hungarian forint, which essentially stagnated. Conversely Polish zloty weakened the most, by 1.2%.

Central European currencies suffer worse economic fundamentals, which of course is true for the Czech crown. The past year has been marked by declining domestic demand in the second half of last year has become increasingly evident in the recession in the euro area and hence weakening foreign demand. It confirmed this week released statistics PMI index of industrial production for December.The fifth decline in a row to 46.0 points marked fall to the lowest level in the last three and a half years. Was particularly alarming slump in new orders due to lower demand in the domestic and foreign market, concentrating mainly in the automotive and construction industries. It is therefore a series of other indicators that the recession that began early last year, lasted until its conclusion.

Coming week will bring a whole range of macroeconomic indicators, which should confirm that the recession in the Czech economy continues. Weak domestic demand confirms the November retail sales statistics (published on Fridays). Just bring home the week date November industrial production and foreign trade. Here we are worried that it is confirmed as weak domestic economic activity, it will be seen as weakening demand from abroad.Unfavorable macroeconomic picture then bring on Wednesday published the December unemployment rate, which seems rather see a significant increase (mainly due to negative seasonality). From the perspective of the central bank will be a key outcome of the December inflation, which will be released on Wednesday. If the data ended significantly below the CNB forecast, it will mean a significant inflationary factor. And this risk is small. Market consensus sees the December annual inflation at 2.4%, which corresponds to our estimate. CNB of course in its latest forecast assumes 2.8%. And as for today again confirmed HN Governor Tomsik, foreign exchange interventions of the CNB's view the best way to further easing of monetary policy. If you really disappoint data next week, the road to weaken toward 25.50 CZK / EUR will open.

Author: Jan Vejmělek

Tyto zprávy pro vás vytváří Investiční bankovnictví KB.
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