Research (Česká spořitelna)
Macroeconomics  |  January 07, 2013 09:21:07

Macro: The second week will be relatively quiet in the world, home data


I second this week will be relatively quiet in terms of number of published macroeconomic data. The U.S. trade balance only. It will be interesting to examine the evolution of the economy (mainly the export performance), but very likely to affect trading. In Europe, the most interesting data on industrial orders and industrial production in Germany. The consensus estimate is still waiting for fall, but significantly slower pace. Confirmation of the trend towards improvement, which signaled the end of the tip indicators ZEW and IFO would be definitely nice. With unemployment in the EMU is waiting continued growth trend. Whereas the unemployment rate lag behind the economic cycle, we can expect in the foreseeable future growth.ECB meeting should bring more surprises - some rates remain unchanged (a very small chance to reduce them) and they will not even taken any new measures. The most important probably is assessing the state of the economy. Market reaction should be muted. During the week, a large mob will Fed officials, which will be in response to the remarks of the last FOMC meeting very interesting for the market. Possible responses are therefore significant for individual performances.

Most data in the CEE region awaits us in the Czech Republic. The data should confirm 1) the continued deceleration in industry (PMI indicates the Czech Republic) 2) still a large trade surplus, mainly due to low imports 3) annual inflation falling and inflation is still negative demand 4) weak household demand (retail sales).We can not wait to see more comments from CNB representatives regarding foreign exchange interventions, especially after weaker data. In Poland meets central bank data after doing poorly in recent weeks, together with the market waiting for further rate cuts.

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Makro: Druhý týden bude ve světě relativně klidný, domácí data

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